早稲田大学スーパーグローバル大学創成支援事業 実証政治経済学拠点、ならびに、現代政治経済研究所の「世論調査方法論」研究部会では、1月28日（火）にLewis Luartz氏（University of California Reverside）をお迎えして「Cycles of Failure: Party Strategy, Public Mood, and Radical Right Formation in Japan」と題するセミナーを開催します。日本において右翼の新興政党がなぜ登場しないのかという問いに対して、ベイジアン構造VARの手法を用いて世論のムードを測定するなど最新のご研究をご報告いただきます。奮ってご参加いただければ幸いです。
【講師】Lewis Luartz (University of California Reverside)
Lewis is a doctoral candidate (ABD) at the University of California, Riverside. His research focuses on political parties and electoral institutions in the Western European and Asian contexts. Specifically, Lewis focuses on the emergence of radicalized parties and strategies associated with their electoral success from a macro-political perspective.
【論題】Cycles of Failure: Party Strategy, Public Mood, and Radical Right Formation in Japan
What conditions promote radical right party formation in Japan? Although the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has a near continuous hold of government in Japanese politics, which has simplified competition to a state of competition among other parties for the opposition position while simultaneously reducing the likelihood of radical right formation, both a radical right group and party formed in Japan: Zaitokukai in 2007 and its successor the Japan First Party in 2016. I argue that parties moving away from their traditionally established strategic positions, coupled with feelings of frustration among the public, are the key to determining the formation of radical right parties. This relationship is embedded within a systemic homogeneity framework (wherein the same parties typically hold power while barely changing their strategies), a party homogeneity framework (wherein parties are expected to rarely change their strategic positioning), and the problem of mandate and accountability representation (wherein the relationship between voters and politicians lead to different moods or responses among the public). When parties break their traditional cycles and adopt erratic strategic positions within a homogeneous system while moods or responses to mandate and accountability representation take an inverse pattern, there are negative externalities that lead to ripe conditions for radical right formation. To examine these phenomena, I use a new measure of party strategy that incorporates the concept of nicheness (Meguid 2005, 2008; Bischof 2017) in a unique manner, as well as the Bayesian structural vector autoregression analysis (B-SVAR) model presented in Ohmura (2018) as the foundation for determining these conditions.
【 事前申込】 不要
Waseda INstitute of Political EConomy(WINPEC) https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/