※For English please scroll down.
【日 時】７月７日（金）１０：４０～１２：１０
【場 所】早稲田大学 早稲田キャンパス３号館１０階 第一会議室
【報告者】 Prof. Bingjing Li (Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, National University of Singapore, trade and development)
※リー先生の御経歴につきましては以下ホームページをご覧ください。
https://sites.google.com/site/bingjingliecon/
【タイトル】
The Causes of China’s Great Famine, 1959-1961: County-Level Evidence (joint with Hiroyuki Kasahara)
【概要】
This paper provides evidence that over-export of grains aggravated the severity of China’s Great Famine. We collect the county-level information on the death rate, the birth rate, the procurement amount of grains, the output of different types of grains, crop productivity, weather condition, and distance to railroad in 1953-1965. We exploit the county-level variation in the types of crops each county specialized in to construct Bartikstyle measures for export shocks and regress the death rates on the Bartik measures. The regression result suggests that the effect of grain exports on the excess deaths is substantial, estimated at 12 percent of excess deaths between 1957 and 1960. We also estimate the determination of crop-specific procurement policy as well as the causal relationship between the death rates and the consumption per capita at the county-level during the famine period, and conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify the relative importance of different causes of the Great Famine. The counterfactual experiments indicate that that the effect of grain exports on the excess deaths is 11 percent of excess deaths, which explains around 1/5 of the effect of increase in procurement amounts between 1957 and 1960 while a fall of agricultural production in 1959 is the other leading cause of the Great Famine explaining 45 percent of excess deaths.
【使用言語】英語
【招聘教員】戸堂 康之 先生
現政研セミナーは広くみなさまにひらかれたセミナーです。
皆様の御参加をお待ちしております。
*English
【TIME】7th, July Friday 10:40-12:10
【Venue】The meeting room (conference room) #1, BUILDING 3 – Floor 10.
【Presenter】
Prof. Bingjing Li (Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, National University of Singapore, trade and development)
**Personal Website and C.V.
https://sites.google.com/site/bingjingliecon/
【Title】
The Causes of China’s Great Famine, 1959-1961: County-Level Evidence (joint with Hiroyuki Kasahara)
【Abstract】
This paper provides evidence that over-export of grains aggravated the severity of China’s Great Famine. We collect the county-level information on the death rate, the birth rate, the procurement amount of grains, the output of different types of grains, crop productivity, weather condition, and distance to railroad in 1953-1965. We exploit the county-level variation in the types of crops each county specialized in to construct Bartikstyle measures for export shocks and regress the death rates on the Bartik measures. The regression result suggests that the effect of grain exports on the excess deaths is substantial, estimated at 12 percent of excess deaths between 1957 and 1960. We also estimate the determination of crop-specific procurement policy as well as the causal relationship between the death rates and the consumption per capita at the county-level during the famine period, and conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify the relative importance of different causes of the Great Famine. The counterfactual experiments indicate that that the effect of grain exports on the excess deaths is 11 percent of excess deaths, which explains around 1/5 of the effect of increase in procurement amounts between 1957 and 1960 while a fall of agricultural production in 1959 is the other leading cause of the Great Famine explaining 45 percent of excess deaths.
【Language】English
【Organizer】Prof. Yasuyuki Todo
We encourage your participation.
