実証ミクロ経済学ワークショップ開催報告
『Sea Level Rise Risk Interactions with Coastal Property Values:A Case Study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i』
講演者：樽井礼
（ハワイ大学マノア校 経済学部 教授)
開催概要
開催日時： 2022年7月14日（水）16：30-18:00
会 場： 3号館601教室およびZoomによるハイブリッド
概 要：
Climate change-induced sea level rise (SLR), by affecting a range of coastal assets, will prompt challenging decisions about coastal land use across the world. Recent studies find that current and projected SLR is associated with relatively lower current property values. We contribute to this growing body of research with a case of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, which is famed for its beaches as well as valuable coastal real estate. We leverage a unique dataset that unpacks multiple types of SLR exposure in addition to typical bathtub modeling–specifically how SLR interacts with seasonal high wave run-up and exacerbated patterns of coastal erosion. We apply property transaction data in the City and County of Honolulu (Oʻahu) between 2014 and 2019 to investigate the effect of current and expected SLR exposure on residential property prices. We find that exposed properties have already experienced declines in transaction prices, at 7-20%. While confirming earlier findings that chronic flooding risks are associated with lower transaction prices, we also find that seasonal high wave exposures matter for housing value. The market response of coastal residential properties to current and expected SLR has important implications for coastal management strategies, in particular the viability of managed retreat programs involving large-scale buy-outs.
PAPER
（講演言語：英語）
