【開催報告】グローバル経済史研究部会（6月30日）/ Global Economic History Seminar on June 30th

講演者

氏名：山岸敦

所属：一橋大学

資格：准教授

経歴：こちらからご確認ください

開催概要

開催日時：　2026年6月30日（火）15時05分－16時45分
開催方法：　早稲田大学早稲田キャンパス3号館4階401教室およびオンライン（Zoom） 

講演報告

講演タイトル：Martyrs, Morale, and Militarism: The Political Impact of Devastation and Slaughter 

講演概要：
Opinion is sharply divided about whether the bombing of an enemy’s civilian targets and the killing of their combatants result in an adversary’s population becoming pacifist or pro-military.  Identification is difficult because natural experiments are rare, and effects may be heterogeneous. For example, killing enemy combatants may create martyrs, while targeting civilians may lower their pro-war morale. We solve this problem by leveraging a natural experiment in Japan in which military casualties and urban destruction varied exogenously, but differentially, across cities. We then estimate the impact of devastation and slaughter on support for Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, which aims to revise Japan’s constitution to enable it to rearm. We find contrasting effects of targeting soldiers and civilians—military deaths induce future pro-military voting, while urban destruction induces pacifist voting. Moreover, these effects persist long after most people with direct experience of the war have died.