ニューカッスル大学のChan Ka Ming講師をお迎えし、 “Trump 2.0’s effect: Do citizens update the US democracy rating in its first month?” と題してワークショップを開催します。
どなたでもご参加いただけます。事前登録は不要です。ぜひご参加下さい。
We are very pleased to host Dr. Chan Ka Ming, a Lecturer (Assistant Professor) at Newcastle University, for a special talk with the title ” Trump 2.0’s effect: Do citizens update the US democracy rating in its first month?”.
Pre-registration is not required. We look forward to your participation.
日時：2025年11月6日（木）13:10 – 14:50
Date and Time: Thursday, November 6th, 2025, 13:10 – 14:50
場所：早稲田大学3号館 606教室 Venue： Room 606, Building 3, Waseda Campus, Waseda University
言語Language：英語English
Since Trump’s second presidency (Trump 2.0), the US has undergone substantive autocratization. Yet, little is known about whether citizens update this change in US democratic quality. I argue there are three perspectives to understand this updating process: (1) partisan motivated reasoning, (2) conceptions of democracy, and (3) citizens’ political interest and knowledge. To test for this change, I use the American National Election Studies (ANES) survey that was collected amid Trump’s ascendance to power. Using unexpected event during survey design, I find a precise drop in US democracy rating in Trump 2.0’s first 30 days, but the magnitude is small. I also compare this decrease with the estimates provided by various LLMs. Next, I examine which subgroup is more prone to update: the findings suggest this drop is mainly driven by Democrats and citizens with a liberal conception of democracy. I discuss how these findings contribute to the autocratization literature.
Contact: 小林哲郎（早稲田大学） Tetsuro Kobayashi (Waseda University)
