“Lot Shape Matters a Lot: The Geometry of Urban Land Market Frictions” by Yuki Kanayama (London School of Economics), August 5, 17:00-

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日時：８月５日水曜日　5限（17:00～）
Date and Time: Wednesday, August 5, 17:00-

場所：３号館　12階　ディスカッションルーム
Venue: Discussion room. 12th floor, Building 3, Waseda Campus, Waseda University

Presenter：Yuki Kanayama (London School of Economics)

Title：Lot Shape Matters a Lot: The Geometry of Urban Land Market Frictions

Abstract：
This study examines whether the geometric characteristics of land lots can be sources of frictions in the land market. We first propose a search-and-matching model of the land market that links shape irregularity to vacancy duration and the likelihood that a lot is put on the market. To test the theoretical predictions, we apply a Cox proportional hazards model for the duration analysis and a linear probability model for the listing decisions analysis to a rich set of GIS polygon data on vacant lots from a satellite city of Tokyo. We find that shape irregularity—measured as the areal deviation from a minimum bounding rectangle—is associated with longer vacancy and lower probability of being listed for sale. The results suggest that lot shape is not merely a passive spatial trait but a structural source of land market frictions, which could hinder the efficient supply of housing in high-demand areas.

Authors：
Ikuto Aiba (Seikei University and The University of Tokyo)
Yuki Kanayama (London School of Economics)
Kazushi Tanaka (The University of Tokyo)