“Antidumping Shocks, Trade Intermediaries, and Domestic Reallocation in Chinese Exports”　by Xiaopeng Wei, “The Effects of Bilateral Subjective Geopolitical Risk on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment” by Haonan Li, “Moving Online under De Minimis? Import Tariffs and International Retail E-Commerce” by Zhihong Yu, June22, 15:05

Dear Colleagues,

I am pleased to invite you to our upcoming academic seminar（早稲田大学現代政治経済研究所部会）to be held at Waseda University. This seminar is open to the public and held in English.
This time, the main speaker is Prof. Zhihong Yu from Nottingham University, who is one of the top researchers in international economics (published in REStat, JIE, ET, and others) and an associate editor of the World Economy, one of the best journals in international economics.
Participation in only Session 2 (Prof. Yu’s talk from 17:00) is welcome.

皆様
以下のように早稲田大学現代政治経済研究所部会を開催いたします。今回のメインスピーカーは、ノッティンガム大学のZhihong Yu教授（国際経済学のトップ研究者であり、World Economy誌のassociate editor）です。学内外の方々にオープンなセミナーですので、ふるってご参加ください。Yu教授のプレゼン（Session 2, 17:00より）のみの参加も歓迎です。

————————————————

Date and Time 日時: June 22 (Monday) 15:05-18:40/6月22日（月）15:05～18:40

Venue 場所: Waseda University, Waseda Campus, Building 3, Discussion Room (12th floor)/早稲田大学 早稲田キャンパス 3号館 ディスカッションルーム（12階）
Campus Map:
https://waseda.app.box.com/s/gsx693d8fj8v8b5zz6ii20nc7js0p3pz

————————————————

Program

Session 1
15:05-15:10
Opening remarks by Yasuyuki Todo (Waseda University)

15:10-15:55
Xiaopeng Wei, PhD student at Hitotsubashi University
Title: Antidumping Shocks, Trade Intermediaries, and Domestic Reallocation in Chinese Exports

15:55-16:40
Haonan Li, PhD student at Waseda University
Title: The Effects of Bilateral Subjective Geopolitical Risk on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment

 

Session 2
17:00-18:30
Zhihong Yu, University of Nottingham
Title: Moving Online under De Minimis? Import Tariffs and International Retail E-Commerce

18:30-18:35
Closing remarks: Hongyong Zhang (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry)

1900-21:00
Reception at a restaurant in Takadanobaba

————————————————

Abstracts
Xiaopeng Wei, Hitotsubashi University
Title: Antidumping Shocks, Trade Intermediaries, and Domestic Reallocation in Chinese Exports

Abstract: How do foreign trade shocks propagate through domestic export networks? We study how antidumping (AD) actions on Chinese exports affect export relationships and intermediary sourcing using transaction-level Chinese customs data from 2000–2007 merged with the Temporary Trade Barriers Database. We first show that AD shocks reduce export activity primarily through the extensive margin, active firm-product-destination relationships decline, and the contraction is driven more clearly by reduced entry than by a robust increase in exit. Among surviving relationships, however, export values are more resilient, consistent with reallocation toward incumbent ties. Second, intermediaries, especially cross-city intermediaries are more exposed on the extensive margin than producers, suggesting that they operate as key network hubs rather than simple shock absorbers. On the domestic side, AD-exposed intermediary firms reduce both local and non-local sourced exports and source from fewer provinces overall. Heterogeneity analysis further suggests that firms more reliant on geographically dispersed sourcing networks are more vulnerable to trade shocks. Taken together, the evidence indicates that intermediary networks are an important channel through which foreign trade shocks are transmitted domestically, primarily by reshaping which export and sourcing relationships survive.

Haonan Li, PhD student at Waseda University
The Effects of Bilateral Subjective Geopolitical Risk on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment

This paper examines how bilateral subjective geopolitical risk affects cross-border economic activities, focusing on both trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). Unlike conventional geopolitical risk measures that focus on objective events, this paper highlights the importance of bilateral risk perceptions in shaping cross-border economic decisions. We argue that firms form such perceptions through domestic media coverage of foreign countries. Based on this idea, we construct a bilateral geopolitical risk index using Global Database of Events, Language and Tone (GDELT) news data. The sample covers 10 major source countries and 20 major destination countries over the period 2017–2025, and the empirical analysis relies on PPML estimations with high-dimensional fixed effects. The results reveal a contrast between trade and FDI. For trade, higher bilateral subjective geopolitical risk significantly reduces imports, with effects that persist across longer lags and are stronger for material conflict than for verbal conflict. In contrast, we do not find a significant negative effect on exports, suggesting that geopolitical risk primarily affects supply chain stability rather than demand in destination markets. For FDI, higher subjective geopolitical risk is associated with an increase in the number of FDI projects. Taken together, these findings suggest that geopolitical risk affects trade and FDI through different channels: it reduces imports by increasing supply chain uncertainty and disruption, while it may increase FDI by encouraging firms to reorganize production networks and establish a more stable overseas presence.

Zhihong Yu, University of Nottingham
Title: Moving Online under De Minimis? Import Tariffs and International Retail E-Commerce

Abstract: The rapid growth of international retail e-commerce has drawn scrutiny to the USde minimis rule, which exempts low-value imports from tariffs. This paper analyzes how the rule shapes the e-commerce trade using product-level tariff changes from the2018–2019 US–China trade war. We examine whether tariff increases on traditional imports led consumers to substitute toward tariff-exempt e-commerce imports from China. Using proprietary parcel-level data from a major logistics firm, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in tariffs raised monthly parcel volume by 0.283% in panel regressions, and by 0.719% in long-difference specifications. These effects imply a 4.0%–10.1% increase in e-commerce imports—substantial, yet modest compared to the 152% overall growth from 2017 to 2019. The response is stronger in densely populated ZIP Codes but does not vary by income or race. Our findings show that tariff avoidance under the de minimis rule contributed only modestly to e-commerce growth, but other forces, such as improved platform marketing, played a larger role.

We would be delighted if you could join us for this seminar and the subsequent discussion.

Sincerely,