高等研究所セミナーシリーズ“地球制約下の経済・技術・社会の文理融合型実証研究” Interdisciplinary Empirical Research on Economy, Technology, and Society under Planetary Constraints
WIAS RIEEM Seminar（7/24）
主 旨 / Abstract
①Hidemichi Yonezawa
Title: The climate mitigation spillovers of carbon taxes: a systematic CGE modelling scenario analysis
Abstract: Mitigation policy effectiveness heavily depends on how domestic climate actions interact with global markets and foreign policies. As countries pursue Paris Agreement goals at different speeds, concerns about cross-border spillovers and carbon leakage have intensified, prompting some economies to consider anti-leakage measures that could reshape international trade. To support a shared evidence base, this paper provides a systematic modeling assessment of policy asymmetry and coordination across regions.
Utilizing the ENV-Linkages model—a multi-sectoral, multi-regional recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model—this study simulates a USD 100 carbon tax applied across 16,384 possible regional coalitions. This approach enables a comprehensive examination of sectoral channels and design choices affecting leakage and economic outcomes, expanding significantly upon earlier literature which typically examines only a very limited set of standard coalitions (such as the EU or Annex I regions).
The simulation results demonstrate that international coordination significantly reduces carbon leakage, with leakage rates converging to a low, tight band once coalitions cover roughly 25% of global emissions. The analysis highlights that leakage concentrates in emissions-intensive trade-exposed (EITE) sectors and is primarily driven by global fossil-fuel price effects. Furthermore, while unilateral actions yield modest domestic GDP impacts, broader coalitions generate substantial spillovers that grow with coalition size, particularly affecting fossil-fuel exporters. Finally, the presentation discusses how policy design shapes these spillovers and outlines future research avenues to enhance country-level granularity and technological spillover modeling.
②Marie Missao Raude
Title: From auctions to resale: permit flows in the European carbon market
Abstract: This paper investigates the transmission channel between the primary and secondary markets in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), focusing on the behaviour of auction winners. As auctions become the primary mechanism for regulators to inject permits into the system, understanding how auction winners influence secondary markets is increasingly important. Using micro-level data, we analyse auction concentration, identify auction winners and examine their net trading positions and permit banking behaviour. Our findings show that auctions are highly concentrated and dominated by a small group of frequent winners, many acting as net sellers on secondary markets while simultaneously increasing their accumulated holdings of permits. These dynamics suggest potential for the exercise of market power from auction winners and highlight the need for enhanced regulatory oversight as the EU ETS evolves.
プログラム / Program
①“The climate mitigation spillovers of carbon taxes: a systematic CGE modelling scenario analysis”
Hidemichi Yonezawa
Senior Economist, Modelling and Outlooks Team at the OECD Environment Directorate
②“From auctions to resale: permit flows in the European carbon market”
Marie Missao Raude
Postdoctoral researcher Florence School of Regulation Climate at the European University Institute
登壇者 / Speakers
- Hidemichi Yonezawa is a Senior Economist in the Modelling and Outlooks Team at the OECD Environment Directorate. Prior to joining the OECD, he held positions as a Senior Researcher at Statistics Norway and a Postdoctoral Researcher at ETH Zurich and the University of Ottawa. His research focuses on environmental and energy economics, international trade, and public policy design. He specializes in employing theoretical frameworks and numerical simulation models to examine the economic efficiency and distributional impacts of policies across regions and socio-economic households.
- Marie Missao Raude is a postdoctoral researcher at the Florence School of Regulation Climate at the European University Institute, where she works on the design and regulation of carbon markets. She earned her PhD in Economics from Paris Nanterre University in 2025. Her doctoral research focused on the EU Emissions Trading System, examining its market microstructure and the behaviour of regulated firms and financial actors.
日 時 / Date&Time
2026年7月24日（金）16:00～18:00 / July 24, 2026 (Fri.) 16:00 – 18:00
会場 / Venue
早稲田キャンパス3号館10階第一会議室 / Conference Room 1, 10th Floor, Building 3, Waseda Campus, Waseda University
対 象 / Prospected Audience
学部生、大学院生、教員、研究者、一般
Students, Graduate students, Faculty members, Research members, General participants
言 語 / Language
英語 / English
主 催 / Organizer
早稲田大学 高等研究所 / Waseda Institute for Advanced Study (WIAS)
共 催 / Co-Organizer
早稲田大学 環境経済・経営研究所 / Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management
早稲田大学 現代政治経済研究センターCCS普及政策研究部会 / WINPEC (Waseda Institute of Political Economy) Economics of CCS
申込み / Registration
要事前登録 以下リンクよりお申込みをお願いします。
https://forms.gle/z4rKD6cT7dYQTn568
Pre-registration is required：Please register via the link below.
https://forms.gle/z4rKD6cT7dYQTn568
