※For English please scroll down.
１０月１０日（火）に行われます、現政研セミナーの日程、場所などにつきましてご案内申し上げます。
【日 時】１０月１０日（火）１０：４０～１２：１０
【場 所】早稲田大学 早稲田キャンパス３号館１０階 第一会議室
【報告者】 Taisuke Nakata
【タイトル】The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound
【招聘教員】 上田 晃三
【概要／Abstract】
Even when the policy rate is currently not constrained by its effective lower bound (ELB), the possibility that the policy rate will become constrained in the future lowers today’s inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation. In an empirically rich model calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy, we find that the tail risk induced by the ELB causes inflation to undershoot the target rate of 2 percent by as much as 45 basis points at the economy’s risky steady state. Our model suggests that achieving the inflation target may be more difficult now than before the Great Recession, if the recent ELB experience has led households and firms to revise up their estimate of the frequency of ELB events.
現政研セミナーは広くみなさまにひらかれたセミナーです。
皆様の御参加をお待ちしております。
*English
This notice is to inform you of the WINPEC (Waseda Institute of Political Economy) Seminar on Oct. 10.
【TIME】10th, October Tuesday, 10:40-12:10
【Venue】The meeting room (conference room) #1, BUILDING 3 – Floor 10.
【Presenter】 Taisuke Nakata
【タイトル】The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound
【Organizer】上田 晃三
【概要／Abstract】
Even when the policy rate is currently not constrained by its effective lower bound (ELB), the possibility that the policy rate will become constrained in the future lowers today’s inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation. In an empirically rich model calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy, we find that the tail risk induced by the ELB causes inflation to undershoot the target rate of 2 percent by as much as 45 basis points at the economy’s risky steady state. Our model suggests that achieving the inflation target may be more difficult now than before the Great Recession, if the recent ELB experience has led households and firms to revise up their estimate of the frequency of ELB events.
We encourage your participation.
