【日 時】７月４日（火）１０：４０～１２：１０
【場 所】早稲田大学 早稲田キャンパス３号館１０階 第一会議室
【報告者】 陣内 了 先生 （一橋大学 経済研究所 准教授）
【タイトル】
Recurrent Bubbles, Economic Fluctuations, and Growth
【概要】
We propose a model that generates permanent effects on economic growth following a recession (super hysteresis). The model is based on a tractable model of recurring bubbles, liquidity scarcity, and endogenous productivity. In our setup, bubbles promote growth because they provide liquidity to constrained investors. Bubbles are sustained only when the financial system is under-developed. If the financial development is in the intermediate level, stochastic bubbles can be harmful in the sense that they decrease the unconditional mean and increase the unconditional volatility of the growth rate relative to the fundamental equilibrium in the same economy. Through the lens of an estimated version of our model fitted to U.S. data, we argue that 1) there is evidence of recurrent bubbles; 2) the Great Moderation results from the collapse of the monetary bubble in the late 1970s; and 3) the burst of the housing bubble is partially responsible for the post-Great Recession dismal recovery of the U.S. economy.
【使用言語】英語
【招聘教員】 戸村 肇 先生
【参加資格】学生・教職員・研究部会員・一般
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