Report: Special lecture on the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s World Economic Outlook

On October 14, 2022, a special lecture featuring the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s World Economic Outlook was held in person at Waseda University, hosted by the University’s Center for Positive/Empirical Analysis of Political Economy.

Nikkei article dated Oct. 12, 2022, on the IMF World Economic Outlook（日本経済新聞 2022年10月12日付朝刊）

This is a public lecture inviting two economists from the IMF’s Research Department: Dr. Jorge Alvarez and Dr. Philip Barrett. They are authors of the IMF’s by-annual economic report, World Economic Outlook. We are very lucky to have a fresh topic because this report was published only three days before the public lecture. This report made a huge impact on global society. For example, it was featured in the same week’s Nikkei newspaper. Dr. Jorge Alvarez and Dr. Philip Barrett are not only prominent economists focusing on global policy issues but also academic researchers publishing articles in prestigious journals such as American Economic Journal of Macroeconomics and Journal of Development Economics.

Dr. Philip Barret talks about the overview of the current global economy

Dr. Jorge Alvarez discusses the wage-price spiral risk

Dr. Philip Barrett first talked about the overview of the current global economy, which is based on the first chapter of the World Economic Outlook. After the Ukraine war, the global inflation hike has been a hot topic. He, in particular, focuses on the risks in the middle-income and emerging market countries associated with fiscal default risks. Next, Dr. Jorge Alvarez discussed the wage-price spiral risk, which is currently pointed out by many economists. Interestingly, after examining past similar historical episodes, he concluded that the wage-price acceleration risk is small. His small-scale DSGE model implies that anchoring inflation expectations is the key policy requirement.

Each session had 30-minute speech and 15-minute Q&A discussions. About 90 students attended. Students asked a variety of questions very actively. After the event, the speakers kindly spent some time in individual discussions with students.