The Center for Positive/Empirical Analysis of Political Economy, Waseda University and the WINPEC Public Opinion Survey Methodology Research Group is organising a seminar with Lewis Luartz (University of California Reverside) on “Cycles of Failure: Party Strategy, Public Mood, and Radical Right Formation in Japan” as follows.
Date: Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Venue: Conference Room #1 on the 10th floor, the 3rd Building, Waseda Campus
Speaker: Lewis Luartz (University of California Riverside)
Lewis is a doctoral candidate (ABD) at the University of California, Riverside. His research focuses on political parties and electoral institutions in the Western European and Asian contexts. Specifically, Lewis focuses on the emergence of radicalized parties and strategies associated with their electoral success from a macro-political perspective.
Title: Cycles of Failure: Party Strategy, Public Mood, and Radical Right Formation in Japan
Participants: Open to all students, faculty members, and the general public
Registration: No registration required
Co-sponsor: Center for Positive/Empirical Analysis of Political Economy, Waseda University and Research Project on Survey Methodology, WINPEC
Contacts: Airo Hino, Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University（[email protected]）
Waseda INstitute of Political EConomy(WINPEC) https://www.waseda.jp/fpse/winpec/
Mail address [email protected]
What conditions promote radical right party formation in Japan? Although the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has a near continuous hold of government in Japanese politics, which has simplified competition to a state of competition among other parties for the opposition position while simultaneously reducing the likelihood of radical right formation, both a radical right group and party formed in Japan: Zaitokukai in 2007 and its successor the Japan First Party in 2016. I argue that parties moving away from their traditionally established strategic positions, coupled with feelings of frustration among the public, are the key to determining the formation of radical right parties. This relationship is embedded within a systemic homogeneity framework (wherein the same parties typically hold power while barely changing their strategies), a party homogeneity framework (wherein parties are expected to rarely change their strategic positioning), and the problem of mandate and accountability representation (wherein the relationship between voters and politicians lead to different moods or responses among the public). When parties break their traditional cycles and adopt erratic strategic positions within a homogeneous system while moods or responses to mandate and accountability representation take an inverse pattern, there are negative externalities that lead to ripe conditions for radical right formation. To examine these phenomena, I use a new measure of party strategy that incorporates the concept of nicheness (Meguid 2005, 2008; Bischof 2017) in a unique manner, as well as the Bayesian structural vector autoregression analysis (B-SVAR) model presented in Ohmura (2018) as the foundation for determining these conditions.