On July 1, Professor Erik Gartzke of University of California, San Diego will give a talk entitled “Gaining Credibility: Alliances and U.S. Overseas Deployment.” Professor Atsushi Tago of the School of Political Science and Economics is hosting the event with the support from the Center for Positive/Empirical Analysis of Political Economy, Top Global University Project at Waseda University.
“CROP-IT (Collaborative Research On Political Information Transmission) ” is funded by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.
Abstract
A substantial portion of U.S. military forces are stationed abroad, on allied territory. This effort is costly and appears redundant if alliances perform a similar role more cheaply. Deployments of this type are also typically too small to adequately defend an ally. What then do they achieve? We refine existing insights in the literature, presenting a formal model in which deployments signal U.S. resolve. We then provide the first systematic evidence for extended deterrence success through costly signaling. By holding alliance status constant, we are able to assess different attributes of deployments. Time-series analysis of the U.S.-Japan security treaty further isolates deployment from endogeneity or reverse causation. As predicted by the model, the proportion of military expenditures tied to U.S. deployments in Japan accounts for extended general deterrence outcomes much better than the total number of troops stationed in the country. Our findings further suggest that the United States can continue to deter in a period of relative decline, as long as withdrawals of overseas troops are smaller than the relative decline of the U.S. economy.
Outline
- Title: Gaining Credibility: Alliances and U.S. Overseas Deployments
- Date & Time: Monday July 1, 2019 at 14：45-6：15
- Place: Conference Room 1, 10F of Building 3, Waseda Campus
- Language: English
- Open to all students, faculty members, and the general public
- Registration: No registration required
- Presenter: Professor Erik Gartzke, University of California, San Diego
- Contact: Atsushi Tago, Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University [email protected]
- Co-sponsor: TGU Positive/Empirical Analysis of Political Economy, Waseda University; WINPEC Experiments in Political Science Research Group
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