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Many Waseda University students may think that social issues are somewhat difficult to approach. In the new corner, "Lectures by Experts'', we will focus on specific problems facing society and ask four Faculty to give us hints on how to solve them.

The theme for 2023 is "How do we maintain peace?" As the world situation becomes unstable due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we will once again consider what peace is. Our second guest is Professor Atsushi Tago (Faculty of Political Science and Economics), who scientifically discusses international political phenomena. In the first part, he talked about his answer to the theme and what students can do now.

Peace is ``a state of no war'' and ``a state of successful negotiations.''

There are many students who feel that the world situation is becoming unstable. Professor Tago, how would you answer the question, ``How do we protect peace?''

When thinking about this, let's first think about ``what is peace?'' One way is a "state without war." There are situations, such as the Armistice Agreement on the Korean Peninsula, that are not peaceful in the positive sense even if there is no war, but in a narrow sense, this is what happens. The other is a state in which negotiations have been concluded between the two countries. Because wars are caused by failed negotiations. War is a very costly and unprofitable act, so if possible, we would like to resolve disputes between two countries through negotiations to avoid war. But when negotiations fail and one side decides to use force, even at great cost, war begins.

By the way, war is defined as a conflict between countries in which more than 1,000 combatants die each year. Applying this definition, mass murder, for example, is not a war because it involves a strong nation or organization unilaterally slaughtering a weaker opponent. The current situation under Myanmar's military regime may fall into this category if the anti-government forces continue to overwhelm the pro-democracy forces without progressing in their organization.

What are the causes of wars in the first place?

this is The most appropriate explanation is the ``rational causes of war'' proposed by Professor James Fearon of Stanford University. There are at least three reasons. These are (1) indivisibility of value, (2) information asymmetry, and (3) commitment. one Let's explain them one by one.

First, ``indivisibility of value'' in ① applies to disputes over things that cannot be divided, such as ``inherent territory.'' For example, if two neighboring countries regard the same land as their respective religious "sacred site," they cannot divide the land. It is easy to conclude that disputes over who holds the land can only be resolved through war rather than negotiation.​

Next, ② "information asymmetry". This refers to a situation in which information about the other party is unclear between two parties to a conflict. If it is clear that one side has overwhelmingly high military power, war will generally not occur. Wars occur when the military strength and intentions of the other side are unknown.

And ③ "commitment problem" can be translated as "promise problem".. When two parties to a conflict are unable to trust each other's promises, war becomes more likely. Unlike domestic society, international society does not have a central government. International organizations such as the United Nations function as guarantees of promises between nations. For example, even during the war between Russia and Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations intervened and agreed on the ``Black Sea Grain Initiative,'' which stipulates not to interfere with Ukraine's grain exports, and there is room for international cooperation to secure the promise. leave. Therefore, I think there is still much that a third party such as the United Nations can do in terms of providing guarantees for international agreements that avoid war.

Representatives of Russia and Turkey exchange documents at the signing ceremony of the "Black Sea Grain Initiative" in July 2022. UN Secretary Gretes President (front row, left) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (front row, right) also attended (Photo: Kyodo News)

So, please tell me again about ``how to protect peace.''

Thinking logically, this can be achieved by not only increasing awareness of the costs of war, but also by maintaining a state in which the three causes of the ``rational causes of war'' mentioned above do not occur.

For example, when considering the "indivisibility of values," I think it is essential that each country abide by the principle of maintaining the status quo (status quo) and not demanding what it does not currently have over territory. Furthermore, if the idea that there is no such thing as ``inherent territory'' on Earth and that territory can be shared in some cases became commonplace, wars could be avoided.

​In a democratic country where the media is functioning properly in terms of information asymmetry, there is a high degree of transparency in information and the possibility of avoiding war increases. Although it does not necessarily follow that just because a country is a democracy it does not go to war, it is probably no coincidence that many countries currently experiencing conflict have dictatorial regimes that are not democratic.

Regarding the "commitment issue," if each country keeps its promises and is a reliable nation, it can be said that the possibility of getting involved in a commitment issue-type war is relatively low. Therefore, it is important for each country to actively comply with international rules and gain international trust.

Stay calm and avoid being influenced by negativity bias, and build personal relationships with people from various countries. 

Is there anything specific I can do as a student to protect peace?

Let's consider the recent US-China issue. Since both the United States and China need each other in many economic areas, it is reasonable to think that there is not much merit in going to war. Yet, the media tends to send out reports that incite conflict. This is called ``negativity bias,'' because negative information tends to attract more people's attention. Stay calm and avoid being influenced by the "negativity bias" of these media and social media.

There is no doubt that all countries should be good partners, working together to improve the global environment, even if they are competing at times. If we look back at the history of the US-Soviet Cold War ending in vain, we can easily see that the world would be better off if each country cooperated internationally. For example, after the end of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union in the 1990s, the peace dividend resulted in a significant drop in defense spending in each country.

​It is also important to strive to play a role in reducing unnecessary conflict. Waseda University attracts international students from all over the world, including China, South Korea, the United States, and Russia. First of all, it is important to talk and get to know the other person before you are afraid. If you know the language, culture, and history of other people, you will be able to understand how they think. By building personal relationships with people from various countries, without worrying about the framework of nations or governments, you may begin to see things.

First of all, I want you to realize that it is dangerous and shallow to look at the world situation only from your own values. I would like you to thoroughly understand the logic of those involved, and then think about what you can do to protect peace.

In the second part of the interview (scheduled to be released on July 14th), we will introduce you to Tago's specialty, current research content, and message to Waseda University students. Stay tuned!

Interview and text: Kenichi Marumo
Photography: Yusuke Fukabori
Image design: Ryo Uchida

▼Click here for the second part!

"How do you protect peace?" Tell me! Professor Tago (Part 2)