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Publishing\u306e\u74b0\u5883\u5206\u91ce\u306e\u30aa\u30fc\u30d7\u30f3\u30a2\u30af\u30bb\u30b9\u96d1\u8a8c\u300cEnvironmental Research Letters\u300d\u3067\u516c\u958b\u3055\u308c\u3001IOP Publishing\u304b\u3089\u3082\u30d7\u30ec\u30b9\u30ea\u30ea\u30fc\u30b9\u304c\u884c\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/waseda.box.com\/shared\/static\/s205ndkzrehykjyyqn7r0l1e1pgwf9bg.pdf\">\uff1e\uff1e\u30d7\u30ec\u30b9\u30ea\u30ea\u30fc\u30b9\u3092\u3054\u89a7\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>\u767a\u8868\u5185\u5bb9<\/h3>\n<h4>\u3008\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u80cc\u666f\u3068\u76ee\u7684\u3009<\/h4>\n<p>2015\u5e74\u306e\u30d1\u30ea\u5354\u5b9a\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u6c17\u6e29\u4e0a\u6607\u91cf\u3092\u7523\u696d\u9769\u547d\u4ee5\u524d\u306b\u6bd4\u3079\u30662\u2103\u3088\u308a\u4f4e\u304f\u6291\u3048\u3001\u3055\u3089\u306b\u30011.5\u2103\u306b\u6291\u3048\u308b\u52aa\u529b\u3092\u8ffd\u53ca\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5408\u610f\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u56fd\u3005\u306eCO2\u306e\u524a\u6e1b\u5b9f\u7e3e\u306f\u30012\u2103\u76ee\u6a19\u306e\u9054\u6210\u306b\u306f\u9060\u304f\u53ca\u3093\u3067\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u305d\u306e\u7406\u7531\u306e1\u3064\u306f\u3001\u7de9\u548c\u7b56\u306b\u8981\u3059\u308b\u8cbb\u7528\u304c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308b\u4fbf\u76ca\u306b\u6bd4\u3079\u3066\u6c7a\u3057\u3066\u5c0f\u3055\u304f\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304c\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306b\u3088\u308b\u8cbb\u7528\u30fb\u4fbf\u76ca\u306b\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u306f\u591a\u304f\u306e\u5148\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3088\u308a\u8a73\u7d30\u306a\u8a55\u4fa1\u3092\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u305d\u306e\u8cbb\u7528\u3084\u4fbf\u76ca\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u30e1\u30ab\u30cb\u30ba\u30e0\u3092\u8a73\u7d30\u306b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u7d4c\u6e08\u8a55\u4fa1\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u5206\u6790\u304c\u671b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u307e\u3067\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4eba\u9593\u5065\u5eb7\u3078\u306e\u88ab\u5bb3\u3084\u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u306e\u640d\u5931\u3068\u3044\u3063\u305f\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024(GDP\u306b\u306f\u8a08\u4e0a\u3055\u308c\u306a\u3044\u4fa1\u5024)\u306b\u95a2\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5341\u5206\u306a\u8b70\u8ad6\u304c\u306a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u8ca8\u5e63\u63db\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306e\u4fc2\u6570\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u4e00\u822c\u306b\u3001\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u4fc2\u6570\u306e\u63a8\u8a08\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u56f0\u96e3\u3067\u3059\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306b\u3088\u308b\u5c06\u6765\u88ab\u5bb3\u3092\u898b\u7a4d\u3082\u308b\u969b\u306b\u306f\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3059\u308b\u969b\u306b\u306f\u3001\u5f93\u6765\u304b\u3089\u8b70\u8ad6\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u300c\u5c06\u6765\u4e16\u4ee3\u306e\u4eba\u547d\u3084\u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u306e\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u3044\u3066\u3088\u3044\u304b\u5426\u304b\u300d\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u614e\u91cd\u306b\u8003\u616e\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u3053\u3067\u3001\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u7d4c\u6e08\u8a55\u4fa1\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068LCIA(Life Cycle Impact Assessment; \u30e9\u30a4\u30d5\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30eb\u5f71\u97ff\u8a55\u4fa1)\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3001\u7de9\u548c\u8cbb\u7528\u3084\u7d4c\u6e08\u88ab\u5bb3\u306b\u52a0\u3048\u3001\u4eba\u9593\u5065\u5eb7\u3068\u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u306e\u88ab\u5bb3\u3082\u542b\u3081\u305f\u8a55\u4fa1\u3092\u884c\u3044\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7dcf\u5408\u7684\u306a\u8cbb\u7528\u3092\u898b\u7a4d\u3082\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<h4>\u3008\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u3009<\/h4>\n<p>\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u6e29\u5ba4\u52b9\u679c\u30ac\u30b9\u6392\u51fa\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa(RCP)\u3068\u793e\u4f1a\u7d4c\u6e08\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa(SSP)\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3089\u3092\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u305f\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa(SSP1-RCP2.6\/RCP4.5\/RCP6.0\u3001SSP2-RCP2.6\/RCP4.5\/RCP6.0\/RCP8.5\u3001SSP3-RCP4.5\/RCP6.0\/RCP8.5)\u3054\u3068\u306b\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528(\u7d4c\u6e08\u88ab\u5bb3\u3001\u7de9\u548c\u8cbb\u7528\u3001\u4eba\u9593\u5065\u5eb7\u3078\u306e\u88ab\u5bb3\u3001\u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u306e\u640d\u5931\u306e\u5408\u8a08)\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002RCP\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3059\u308b\u6c17\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u3001CMIP5\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb(General Circulation Models\uff1bGCM\u3001\u5927\u6c17\u5927\u5faa\u74b0\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb)\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306e5\u3064(GFDL-ESM2M\u3001HadGEM2-ES\u3001IPSL-CM5A-LR\u3001MIROC-ESM-CHEM\u3001\u304a\u3088\u3073NorESM1-M)\u3092\u7528\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d4c\u6e08\u88ab\u5bb3(\u8fb2\u696d\u751f\u7523\u6027\u3001\u4f4e\u6804\u990a\u3001\u51b7\u6696\u623f\u9700\u8981\u3001\u52b4\u50cd\u751f\u7523\u6027\u3001\u6c34\u529b\u767a\u96fb\u91cf\u3001\u706b\u529b\u767a\u96fb\u91cf\u3001\u6cb3\u5ddd\u6c3e\u6feb\u3001\u6cbf\u5cb8\u6d78\u6c34)\u306f\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u304c\u904e\u53bb\u306b\u7d71\u5408\u8a55\u4fa1\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u884c\u3063\u305f\u7814\u7a76(Takakura et al., 2019)\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u5168\u7403\u309250\u339e\u56db\u65b9\u306e\u30b0\u30ea\u30c3\u30c9\u306b\u5206\u5272\u3057\u3001\u5404\u30b0\u30ea\u30c3\u30c9\u306b\u6c17\u8c61\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u305f\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e\u5206\u91ce\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u3001\u30de\u30af\u30ed\u7d4c\u6e08\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb(AIM\/CGE\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb)\u307e\u305f\u306f\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3068\u88ab\u5bb3\u984d\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u7528\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7de9\u548c\u8cbb\u7528\u306f\u3001AIM\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb(Fujimori et al., 2017)\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u5404\u793e\u4f1a\u7d4c\u6e08\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306b\u306f\u3001\u7de9\u548c\u7b56\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306eGDP\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u63a8\u79fb(Business As Usual\uff1bBaU)\u304c\u4eee\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3001\u7de9\u548c\u7b56\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306b\u306f\u7d4c\u6e08\u6210\u9577\u304c\u920d\u5316\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001GDP\u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u306e\u3068\u304d\u306eGDP\u306eBaU\u304b\u3089\u306e\u5dee\u5206\u3092\u3001\u7de9\u548c\u8cbb\u7528\u3068\u3057\u3066\u7b97\u51fa\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4eba\u9593\u5065\u5eb7\u3078\u306e\u88ab\u5bb3(\u4f4e\u6804\u990a\u3001\u6cb3\u5ddd\u6d2a\u6c34\u3001\u6691\u3055\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6b7b\u4ea1)\u306f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e\u767a\u751f\u8981\u56e0\u3054\u3068\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7b97\u51fa\u3055\u308c\u305f\u6b7b\u8005\u6570\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3001\u8981\u56e0\u3054\u3068\u306b\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u3084\u3059\u3044\u5e74\u4ee3\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u3066DALY(Disability-Adjusted Life-Years; \u969c\u5bb3\u8abf\u6574\u751f\u5b58\u5e74\u6570)\u306b\u63db\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3055\u3089\u306b\u63db\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u305fDALY\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3001\u8ca8\u5e63\u63db\u7b97\u4fc2\u6570(Murakami et al., 2018)\u3092\u4e57\u3058\u3066\u8ca8\u5e63\u4fa1\u5024\u306b\u63db\u7b97\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u306e\u640d\u5931\u306f\u3001LCIA\u306e\u77e5\u898b\u3092\u6d3b\u7528\u3057\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u751f\u614b\u30cb\u30c3\u30c1\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb[\u203b\u6ce85]\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u305f5\u5206\u985e\u7fa4(\u9ce5\u985e\u3001\u722c\u866b\u985e\u3001\u4e21\u751f\u985e\u3001\u54fa\u4e73\u985e\u3001\u7dad\u7ba1\u675f\u690d\u7269)\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e100\u5e74\u9593\u306e\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u306a\u751f\u606f\u9069\u5730\u9762\u7a4d\u306e\u5909\u5316\u91cf\u304b\u3089\u6c17\u6e29\u4e0a\u6607\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7d76\u6ec5\u306e\u5371\u6a5f\u306b\u7015\u3059\u308b\u7a2e\u6570\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u3001\u305d\u306e\u671f\u9593\u306e\u6c17\u6e29\u5909\u5316\u91cf\u3067\u9664\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u5404\u5206\u985e\u7fa4\u306e1\u5e74\u3042\u305f\u308a\u30fb1\u2103\u4e0a\u6607\u3042\u305f\u308a\u306e\u7d76\u6ec5\u7a2e\u6570\u3092\u7b97\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u3053\u3067\u306f\u8a55\u4fa1\u671f\u9593\u306eGCM\u306e\u6c17\u6e29\u4e0a\u6607\u91cf\u3092\u4e57\u3058\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7d76\u6ec5\u7a2e\u6570\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u7d76\u6ec5\u7a2e\u6570\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3001\u8ca8\u5e63\u63db\u7b97\u4fc2\u6570(Murakami et al., 2018)\u3092\u4e57\u3058\u3066\u8ca8\u5e63\u4fa1\u5024\u306b\u63db\u7b97\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u307e\u305f\u3001\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u8cbb\u7528\u306e\u5272\u5f15\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u30012\u3064\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092\u691c\u8a0e\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u30021\u3064\u76ee\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306f\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u3068\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u306e\u4e21\u65b9\u3092\u30e9\u30e0\u30b8\u30fc\u5f0f(\u03c1(t)=\u03b4+g(t)\u2219\u03b7 ; \u03c1(t)\u304c\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u3001g(t)\u304cGDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u3001\u03b4=0.5\u3001\u03b7=1.0)\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30e9\u30e0\u30b8\u30fc\u5f0f\u306f\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u306e\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u6700\u3082\u3088\u304f\u4f7f\u7528\u3055\u308c\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u306e1\u3064\u3067\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u304f\u8981\u56e0(\u6642\u9593\u9078\u597d\u6027\u3001\u5de8\u5927\u707d\u5bb3\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u6210\u9577)\u3092\u3088\u304f\u8868\u73fe\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u65b9\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u306f\u30e9\u30e0\u30b8\u30fc\u5f0f\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u3092\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u306f\u56fa\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u5272\u5f15\u7387(0.1%)\u3067\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h4>\u3008\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u3068\u8003\u5bdf\u3009<\/h4>\n<p>\u56f31\u306f\u3001\u5404SSP\/RCP\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u88ab\u5bb3(a)\u3001\u4eba\u9593\u5065\u5eb7\u88ab\u5bb3(b)\u3001\u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u88ab\u5bb3(c)\u3001\u7de9\u548c\u8cbb\u7528(d)\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7d4c\u6e08\u88ab\u5bb3\u3068\u7de9\u548c\u8cbb\u7528\u306f\u30e9\u30e0\u30b8\u30fc\u5f0f\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u3044\u305f\u5024\u3092\u3001\u4eba\u9593\u5065\u5eb7\u88ab\u5bb3\u3068\u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u88ab\u5bb3\u306f\u8ca8\u5e63\u4fa1\u5024\u5316\u3059\u308b\u524d\u306e\u5024\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002AIM\/CGE\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7d4c\u6e08\u88ab\u5bb3\u306e\u63a8\u8a08\u304b\u3089\u306f\u4ed6\u306e\u591a\u304f\u306e\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u540c\u7b49\u306e\u5024\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001RCP4.5\u3068RCP6.0\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u88ab\u5bb3\u306f\u5927\u304d\u306a\u5dee\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74Burke(2015)\u7b49\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u63d0\u793a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u7d4c\u6e08\u88ab\u5bb3\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3088\u308a\u3082\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5927\u304d\u3044\u7d4c\u6e08\u88ab\u5bb3\u3092\u63a8\u8a08\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001Burke\u7b49\u306f\u6c17\u6e29\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u6210\u9577\u7387\u3078\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u5316(growth\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb)\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3001AIM\/CGE\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u6c17\u6e29\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u5358\u5e74\u3067\u8a55\u4fa1(level\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb)\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u306f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306b\u4e00\u9577\u4e00\u77ed\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u3069\u3061\u3089\u304c\u826f\u3044\u304b\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u307e\u3060\u6c7a\u7740\u306f\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56f32\u306f\u3001\u5404SSP\/RCP\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306e\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001(a)\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u3068\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u30e9\u30e0\u30b8\u30fc\u5f0f\u3067\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u3044\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u3068\u3001(b)\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u3067\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u3044\u305f\u7d50\u679c\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e21\u65b9\u3092\u30e9\u30e0\u30b8\u30fc\u5f0f\u3067\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u3044\u305f\u5834\u5408(a)\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30d1\u30ea\u5354\u5b9a\u3067\u76ee\u6307\u30592\u2103\u76ee\u6a19(RCP2.6\u76f8\u5f53)\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u304c\u5fc5\u305a\u3057\u3082\u6700\u5c0f\u306b\u306f\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u3067\u3001\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u3067\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u3044\u305f\u5834\u5408(b)\u306b\u306f\u30012\u2103\u76ee\u6a19\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u304c\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u5916\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3068\u6bd4\u3079\u3066\u5927\u304d\u3044\u308f\u3051\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u30012\u2103\u76ee\u6a19\u304c\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u306b\u3082\u4e0d\u9069\u5207\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306eRCP\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u6301\u7d9a\u7684\u306a\u793e\u4f1a\u7d4c\u6e08\u306e\u767a\u5c55\u3092\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408(SSP1)\u306b\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u304c\u6700\u5c0f\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u6211\u3005\u304c\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u793e\u4f1a\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3059\u308b\u304b\u304c\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u306e\u5927\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id=\"attachment_92377\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-92377 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/c1d580336ab8e07577cdd86a81e4b110.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"840\" height=\"922\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/c1d580336ab8e07577cdd86a81e4b110.png 840w, https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/c1d580336ab8e07577cdd86a81e4b110-610x670.png 610w, https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/c1d580336ab8e07577cdd86a81e4b110-768x843.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><p 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(\u6d2a\u6c34\u3084\u6691\u3055\u306b\u8d77\u56e0\u3059\u308b\u904e\u5270\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u3001\u304a\u3088\u3073\u6804\u990a\u4e0d\u8db3)\u3001(c)\u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u3001\u304a\u3088\u3073(d)\u7de9\u548c\u8cbb\u7528\u3002(a)\u3068(d)\u306e\u5024\u306f\u5272\u308a\u5f15\u304b\u308c\u305f\u5f71\u97ff\u306e\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5024\u3002SSP1\/RCP8.5\u304a\u3088\u3073SSP3\/RCP2.6\u3092\u9664\u304d\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306eSSP1-3\/RCP2.6-8.5\u306e\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u68d2\u30b0\u30e9\u30d5\u3067\u793a\u3059\u3002\u70b9\u306f\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3001\u30d0\u30fc\u306f5\u3064\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb(GFDL-ESM2M\u3001HadGEM2-ES\u3001IPSL-CM5A-LR\u3001MIROC-ESM-CHEM\u3001\u304a\u3088\u3073NorESM1-M)\u9593\u306e\u63a8\u8a08\u5024\u306e1\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3002\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u306f\u3001\u7de9\u548c\u8cbb\u7528\u4ee5\u5916\u306e\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u30bb\u30af\u30bf\u30fc\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8003\u616e\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002(\u6ce8: RCP: \u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u306a\u6fc3\u5ea6\u7d4c\u8def\u3002SSP: \u5171\u6709\u3055\u308c\u305f\u793e\u4f1a\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3002DALY: \u969c\u5bb3\u8abf\u6574\u751f\u5b58\u5e74\u6570\u3002)<\/p><\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_92378\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-92378 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/f6939f9486d8794527904e4d9e802277.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"858\" height=\"466\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/f6939f9486d8794527904e4d9e802277.png 858w, https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/f6939f9486d8794527904e4d9e802277-610x331.png 610w, https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/f6939f9486d8794527904e4d9e802277-768x417.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 858px) 100vw, 858px\" \/><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u56f32\uff1a2010\u5e74-2099\u5e74\u306e\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u96c6\u8a08\u3055\u308c\u305f\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u3002\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5272\u5f15\u8cbb\u7528\u306e\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5272\u5f15GDP\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u5272\u5408(%)\u3002(a)\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u3068\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u306e\u4e21\u65b9\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u30e9\u30e0\u30b8\u30fc\u5f0f\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u3092\u9069\u7528\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u3001\u304a\u3088\u3073(b)\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u306f\u30e9\u30e0\u30b8\u30fc\u5f0f\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u305f\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u3001\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u306f\u6642\u9593\u5909\u5316\u306a\u3057\u306b0.1%\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u3092\u9069\u7528\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u3002\u70b9\u306f\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3067\u3001\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3059\u30d0\u30fc\u306f5\u3064\u306eGCM\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u9593\u306e1\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-92379\" src=\"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/e7a2f4407b83e19ee937c1fa9ff8be2b.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"699\" height=\"368\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/e7a2f4407b83e19ee937c1fa9ff8be2b.png 699w, https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/assets\/uploads\/2023\/07\/e7a2f4407b83e19ee937c1fa9ff8be2b-610x321.png 610w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 699px) 100vw, 699px\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>\u3008\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3068\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u5c55\u671b\u3009<\/h4>\n<p>\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u5f71\u97ff\u306e\u8fd1\u5e74\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\u3092\u7dcf\u5408\u7684\u306b\u7528\u3044\u3066\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u306f\u3001\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u5909\u308f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u975e\u7d4c\u6e08\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u8003\u616e\u306b\u542b\u3081\u3001\u304b\u3064\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3089\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u9ad8\u304f\u898b\u7a4d\u3082\u308b\u5834\u5408\u30012\u2103\u76ee\u6a19\u304c\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u306b\u3082\u9069\u5207\u306a\u76ee\u6a19\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u6211\u3005\u304c\u6301\u7d9a\u7684\u306a\u793e\u4f1a\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u7570\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u6539\u3081\u3066\u660e\u3089\u304b\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u793a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u306f\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u5730\u7403\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3084\u5f71\u97ff\u8a55\u4fa1\u6280\u8853\u306e\u6df1\u5316\u3001\u306a\u3089\u3073\u306b\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u6280\u8853\u30a4\u30ce\u30d9\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u9032\u6357\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5927\u304d\u304f\u5909\u308f\u308a\u5f97\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u9069\u5b9c\u898b\u76f4\u3057\u3001\u7cbe\u7dfb\u5316\u3059\u308b\u610f\u7fa9\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb(GCM)\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u63a8\u8a08\u9593\u306e\u30d0\u30e9\u30c4\u30ad\u306b\u8d77\u56e0\u3059\u308b\u5f71\u97ff\u8a55\u4fa1\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u306f\u9ad8\u304f\u3001\u7a7a\u9593\u89e3\u50cf\u5ea6\u3092\u542b\u3081\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u306a\u7cbe\u5ea6\u5411\u4e0a\u304c\u7684\u78ba\u306a\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u63a8\u8a08\u306b\u306f\u5fc5\u9808\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u7814\u7a76\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u69cb\u6210<\/h3>\n<h6><a href=\"https:\/\/www.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp\/press\/pr2023-08-02-001\">\u56fd\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u4eba\u6771\u4eac\u5927\u5b66 \u5927\u5b66\u9662\u5de5\u5b66\u7cfb\u7814\u7a76\u79d1<\/a> \u793e\u4f1a\u57fa\u76e4\u5b66\u5c02\u653b\u3000\u6c96 \u5927\u5e79\uff08\u6559\u6388\uff09\u3001\u6728\u53e3 \u96c5\u53f8\uff08\u4e0a\u5e2d\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\uff09<br \/>\n\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u9069\u5fdc\u30bb\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc\u3000\u82b1\u5d0e \u76f4\u592a\uff08\u5ba4\u9577\uff09\u3001\u80b1\u5ca1 \u9756\u660e\uff08\u30bb\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc\u9577\uff09<br \/>\n\u56fd\u7acb\u7814\u7a76\u958b\u767a\u6cd5\u4eba\u8fb2\u696d\u30fb\u98df\u54c1\u7523\u696d\u6280\u8853\u7dcf\u5408\u7814\u7a76\u6a5f\u69cb \u8fb2\u696d\u74b0\u5883\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u9580\u3000\u6e6f \u9f8d\u9f8d\uff08\u4e3b\u4efb\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\uff09\u3001\u98ef\u6cc9 \u4ec1\u4e4b\u76f4\uff08\u4e0a\u7d1a\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\uff09<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/w-rdb.waseda.jp\/html\/100003650_ja.html\">\u5b66\u6821\u6cd5\u4eba\u65e9\u7a32\u7530\u5927\u5b66 \u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u8853\u9662\u3000\u4f0a\u576a \u5fb3\u5b8f\uff08\u6559\u6388\uff09<\/a><br \/>\n\u56fd\u7acb\u7814\u7a76\u958b\u767a\u6cd5\u4eba\u68ee\u6797\u7814\u7a76\u30fb\u6574\u5099\u6a5f\u69cb \u68ee\u6797\u7dcf\u5408\u7814\u7a76\u6240 \u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u30fb\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u7814\u7a76\u62e0\u70b9\u3000\u5927\u6a4b \u6625\u9999\uff08\u4e3b\u4efb\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\uff09\u3001\u677e\u4e95 \u54f2\u54c9\uff08\u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u30fb\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u7814\u7a76\u62e0\u70b9\u9577\uff09<br \/>\n\u56fd\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u4eba\u611b\u5a9b\u5927\u5b66 \u5927\u5b66\u9662\u8fb2\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u79d1\u3000\u718a\u91ce \u76f4\u5b50\uff08\u51c6\u6559\u6388\uff09<br \/>\n\u6c17\u8c61\u5e81 \u6c17\u8c61\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u3000\u7530\u4e0a \u96c5\u6d69\uff08\u7814\u7a76\u5b98\uff09<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ibaraki.ac.jp\/news\/2023\/08\/01012066.html\">\u56fd\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u4eba\u8328\u57ce\u5927\u5b66<\/a>\u3000\u5730\u7403\u30fb\u5730\u57df\u74b0\u5883\u5171\u5275\u6a5f\u69cb\u3000\u7530\u6751 \u8aa0\uff08\u6559\u6388\uff09\u3001\u5927\u5b66\u9662\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u79d1\u90fd\u5e02\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u5de5\u5b66\u9818\u57df\u3000\u6a2a\u6728 \u88d5\u5b97\uff08\u6559\u6388\uff09<br \/>\n\u83ef\u5317\u96fb\u529b\u5927\u5b66 \u7d4c\u6e08\u7ba1\u7406\u5b66\u9662\u3000\u5468 \u831c\uff08\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff09<br \/>\n\u5b66\u6821\u6cd5\u4eba\u7acb\u547d\u9928 \u7acb\u547d\u9928\u5927\u5b66 \u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u90e8\u3000\u9577\u8c37\u5ddd \u77e5\u5b50\uff08\u51c6\u6559\u6388\uff09<br \/>\n\u30bd\u30a6\u30eb\u5e02\u7acb\u5927\u5b66 \u90fd\u5e02\u79d1\u5b66\u5927\u5b66\u9662 \u9020\u666f\u5b66\u79d1\u3000Chan Park\uff08\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff09<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.shibaura-it.ac.jp\/headline\/detail\/20230801-7070-001.html\">\u5b66\u6821\u6cd5\u4eba\u829d\u6d66\u5de5\u696d\u5927\u5b66<\/a> \u5de5\u5b66\u90e8 \u571f\u6728\u5de5\u5b66\u79d1\u3000\u5e73\u6797 \u7531\u5e0c\u5b50\uff08\u6559\u6388\uff09<br \/>\n\u56fd\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u4eba\u4eac\u90fd\u5927\u5b66 \u5de5\u5b66\u90e8\u74b0\u5883\u5de5\u5b66\u79d1\u3000\u85e4\u68ee \u771f\u4e00\u90ce\uff08\u51c6\u6559\u6388\uff09<br \/>\n\u56fd\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u4eba\u7b51\u6ce2\u5927\u5b66\u3000\u672c\u7530 \u9756\uff08\u540d\u8a89\u6559\u6388\uff09<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ynu.ac.jp\/hus\/koho\/30539\/detail.html\">\u56fd\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u6cd5\u4eba\u6a2a\u6d5c\u56fd\u7acb\u5927<\/a>\u5b66 \u7dcf\u5408\u5b66\u8853\u9ad8\u7b49\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u3000\u677e\u7530 \u88d5\u4e4b\uff08\u4e0a\u5e2d\u7279\u5225\u6559\u6388\uff09<\/h6>\n<h3>\u8ad6\u6587\u60c5\u5831<\/h3>\n<h6>\u3008\u96d1\u8a8c\u3009Environmental Research Letters<br \/>\n\u3008\u984c\u540d\u3009<a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/accdee\/\">Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values<\/a><br \/>\n(\u4eee\u8a33: \u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u3068\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u306e\u7570\u306a\u308b\u5272\u5f15\u7387\u3067\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u306a\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528)<br \/>\n\u3008\u8457\u8005\u3009Takahiro Oda, Jun\u2019ya Takakura, Longlong Tang, Toshichika Iizumi, Norihiro Itsubo, Haruka Ohashi, Masashi Kiguchi, Naoko Kumano, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Masahiro Tanoue, Makoto Tamura, Qian Zhou, Naota Hanasaki, Tomoko Hasegawa, Chan Park, Yasuaki Hijioka, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Yasushi Honda, Tetsuya Matsui, Hiroyuki Matsuda, Hiromune Yokoki, and Taikan Oki<br \/>\n\u3008URL\u3009<a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/accdee\/\">https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/accdee\/<\/a><br \/>\n\u3008IOP Publishing\u304b\u3089\u306e\u82f1\u6587Press release\u3009\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ioppublishing.org\/news\/the-cost-of-climate-change\/\">https:\/\/ioppublishing.org\/news\/the-cost-of-climate-change\/<\/a><\/h6>\n<h3>\u7814\u7a76\u52a9\u6210<\/h3>\n<p>\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u306f\u30012015\u5e74\u5ea6\u304b\u30892019\u5e74\u5ea6\u306b\u304b\u3051\u3066\u5b9f\u65bd\u3055\u308c\u305f\u72ec\u7acb\u884c\u653f\u6cd5\u4eba\u74b0\u5883\u518d\u751f\u4fdd\u5168\u6a5f\u69cb\u306e\u74b0\u5883\u7814\u7a76\u7dcf\u5408\u63a8\u9032\u8cbb\u30fb\u6226\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u30d7\u30ed\u30b8\u30a7\u30af\u30c8S-14(\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7de9\u548c\u7b56\u3068\u9069\u5fdc\u7b56\u306e\u7d71\u5408\u7684\u6226\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u3001\u7814\u7a76\u4ee3\u8868\uff1a\u6771\u4eac\u5927\u5b66 \u6c96 \u5927\u5e79)\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u5b9f\u65bd\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u7528\u8a9e\u89e3\u8aac<\/h3>\n<h6>\u203b\u6ce81\u3000\u5272\u5f15\u7387(discount rate)\uff1a\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u4fa1\u5024\u3092\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u4fa1\u5024\u306b\u76f4\u3059\u305f\u3081\u306b\u7528\u3044\u308b1\u5e74\u3042\u305f\u308a\u306e\u5272\u5408\u3002<\/h6>\n<h6>\u203b\u6ce82\u3000\u4ee3\u8868\u6fc3\u5ea6\u7d4c\u8def\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa(Representative Concentration Pathways)\uff1aRCP2.6\u304a\u3088\u3073RCP8.5\u3067\u306f\u5de5\u696d\u5316\u4ee5\u524d\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u653e\u5c04\u5f37\u5236\u529b\u304c21\u4e16\u7d00\u672b\u307e\u3067\u306b\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c2.6W\/m<sup>2<\/sup>\u304a\u3088\u30738.5W\/m<sup>2<\/sup>\u4e0a\u6607\u3059\u308b\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3002<\/h6>\n<h6>\u203b\u6ce83\u3000\u5171\u901a\u793e\u4f1a\u7d4c\u6e08\u7d4c\u8def(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)\uff1a\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u793e\u4f1a\u7d4c\u6e08\u306e\u50be\u5411\u3092\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3067\u3001SSP1\u306f\u6c17\u5019\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u3082\u3068\u3067\u6301\u7d9a\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u958b\u767a\u3092\u9032\u3081\u3066\u3044\u304f\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3001SSP5\u306f\u6c17\u5019\u653f\u7b56\u3092\u5c0e\u5165\u305b\u305a\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u306b\u3088\u308b\u958b\u767a\u3092\u9032\u3081\u3066\u3044\u304f\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3002<\/h6>\n<h6>\u203b\u6ce84\u3000\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30d4\u30f3\u30b0\u30a8\u30ec\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8(Tipping Elements)\uff1a\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u304c\u9032\u884c\u3057\u3066\u3042\u308b\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30d4\u30f3\u30b0\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8(\u81e8\u754c\u70b9)\u3092\u904e\u304e\u305f\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u3001\u4e0d\u9023\u7d9a\u306a\u6025\u6fc0\u306a\u5909\u5316\u304c\u751f\u3058\u3066\u3001\u7d50\u679c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5927\u304d\u306a\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u5f15\u304d\u8d77\u3053\u3059\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u8981\u7d20\u3002\u4f8b\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5317\u6975\u6d77\u306e\u590f\u5b63\u6d77\u6c37\u306e\u6d88\u5931\u3084\u30b0\u30ea\u30fc\u30f3\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u3084\u897f\u5357\u6975\u306e\u6c37\u5e8a\u878d\u89e3\u3001\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u71b1\u5869\u5faa\u74b0\u306e\u6e1b\u901f\u306a\u3069\u3002<\/h6>\n<h6>\u203b\u6ce85\u3000\u751f\u614b\u30cb\u30c3\u30c1\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb(ecological niche model)\uff1a\u751f\u7269\u7a2e\u306e\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u751f\u606f\u5730\u70b9\u3068\u6c17\u6e29\u30fb\u964d\u6c34\u91cf\u30fb\u571f\u5730\u5229\u7528\u306a\u3069\u306e\u74b0\u5883\u56e0\u5b50\u304b\u3089\u3001\u5f53\u8a72\u751f\u7269\u7a2e\u306e\u751f\u606f\u9069\u5730\u306e\u5b58\u5728\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u7684\u624b\u6cd5\u3002<\/h6>\n<h3>\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/h3>\n<h6>Burke M, Hsiang S M and Miguel E, 2015: Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production, <em>Nature<\/em>, <strong>527<\/strong>(7577), 235\u2013239.<br \/>\nFujimori S. et al., 2017: SSP3: AIM implementation of shared socioeconomic pathways, <em>Glob. Env. Chan.<\/em>, <strong>42<\/strong>, 268\u2013283.<br \/>\nMurakami K., Itsubo N., Kuriyama K., Yoshida K., and Tokimatsu K., 2018: Development of weighting factors for G20 countries. Part 2: estimation of willingness to pay and annual global damage cost, <em>Int. J. Life Cycle Assess.<\/em>, <strong>23<\/strong>(12) 2349\u20132364.<br \/>\nTakakura J. Y., et al., 2019: Dependence of economic impacts of climate change on anthropogenically directed pathways, <em>Nat. Clim. Chan.<\/em>, <strong>9<\/strong>(10) 737\u2013741.<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528 \u2015\u751f\u7269\u591a\u69d8\u6027\u3084\u4eba\u9593\u5065\u5eb7\u306a\u3069\u306e\u975e\u5e02\u5834\u4fa1\u5024\u30682\u2103\u76ee\u6a19\u2015 \u767a\u8868\u306e\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8 \u5168\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306b\u304b\u304b\u308b\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u3092\u65b0\u305f\u306b\u63a8\u8a08\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u7dcf\u8cbb\u7528\u306b\u306f\u3001\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7de9\u548c\u7b56\u306b\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u8cbb\u7528\u3068\u3001\u7de9\u548c\u5f8c\u3082\u6b8b\u308b\u6c17\u5019\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u88ab\u5bb3\u306b\u52a0\u3048\u3066 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":92387,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,1],"tags":[357,57,5],"class_list":["post-92374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-topic","category-news","tag-pressrelease","tag-green","tag-research"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92374"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92374\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":92529,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92374\/revisions\/92529"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}