{"id":6858,"date":"2019-12-26T09:17:32","date_gmt":"2019-12-26T00:17:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/sgu\/?p=6858"},"modified":"2019-12-26T09:20:54","modified_gmt":"2019-12-26T00:20:54","slug":"election-night-forecasting-i-election-night-forecasting-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/sgu\/news-en\/2019\/12\/26\/6858\/","title":{"rendered":"Election-Night Forecasting I, Election-Night Forecasting II"},"content":{"rendered":"

Waseda Top Global University Project\u2019s Center for the Positive\/Empirical Analysis of Political Economy<\/a> welcomed Dr. Momar Dieng from Senegal. He is a mathematician, election expert, and development practitioner. He also regularly lectures on quantitative tools at Harvard University. In two seminars, co-hosted by Waseda University\u2019s Organization for Regional and Inter-regional Studies (ORIS), Dr. Dieng explained Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) and machine learning methods. Participants learned how to conduct a PVT for an actual upcoming election on their own, and also learned one of the most-advanced techniques in election forecasting, machine learning. On both themes, Dr. Deing offered unique insight for students and researchers.<\/p>\n

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Election-Night Forecasting I: Statistical Methods in Election Observation<\/h6>\n

This three-hour long workshop on the Parallel Vote Tabulation provided an excellent opportunity for participants to forecast election results. First, Dr. Dieng explained the statistical background and overall methodology of the PVT. Second, Dr. Dieng demonstrated how to conduct a PVT, using actual election data. In the end of the seminar, he explained how to organize and launch a project of election observation in the field, drawing on actual cases in African elections. The PVT is a simple but strong tool for independent verification of election results. Participants gave positive feedback. In fact, after the seminar, one graduate student commented that he would try to conduct the PVT for an upcoming election in West Africa.<\/p>\n\n\t\t