早稲田大学スーパーグローバル大学創成支援事業 実証政治経済学拠点、ならびに、現代政治経済研究所の「生活習慣病予防施策と労働生産性に関する実証研究」研究部会、重点領域研究 ソーシャル&ヒューマン・キャピタル研究所（WISH）では、12月12日（木）にJonathan Skinner教授（Dartmouth College）をお迎えしてセミナーを企画しております。
【日時】12月12日（木）16:30-18:00
【場所】 早稲田キャンパス3号館4階406
【講師】Jonathan Skinner (Professor, Dartmouth College, Department of Economics)
【論題】“Overconfidence and the Adoption of Medical Technology (with Diego Comin and Douglas Staiger)”
【要旨】
There are remarkably large differences in the timing of adoption and intensity of use of new technologies. What factors determine such differences? Is it because of higher returns to using the new technology, or systematic overconfidence about their expected returns? We address these questions using a unique registry dataset for a quarter-million patients with implantable cardiac defibrillators (ICDs), a medical device that reduces the risk of sudden cardiac arrest. We develop a structural model of Bayesian learning that allows for misperception of provider skill that can lead to overly optimistic or pessimistic behavior. Briefly, our estimates suggest that for ICDs, the most rapid adopters were overly optimistic, leading both to high utilization rates and for these early innovators, below-average returns to the technology. We find that overconfidence can explain half of hospital-level variation in risk-adjusted mortality and nearly three-quarters of the variation in adoption and use. In addition, the model predicts, correctly, that those hospitals exhibiting the greatest optimism about their own ability are the ones that scale back quickest. These results suggest an important role for misperception (both optimistic and pessimistic) in explaining the wide variation in adoption and use of new technologies, and suggests caution in equating rapid diffusion to productivity gains.
【言語】 英語
【 対象】早稲田大学学部生、大学院生、教職員、一般
【 事前申込】 不要
共催：SGU実証政治経済学拠点、
現代政治経済研究所「生活習慣病予防施策と労働生産性に関する実証研究」研究部会
重点領域研究 ソーシャル&ヒューマン・キャピタル研究所
連絡先：政治経済学術院・野口 晴子（[email protected]）
