Election-Night Forecasting I / Election-Night Forecasting II
- Date & Time
Election-Night Forecasting I: Statistical methods in election observation
Wednesday, December 11th, 2019 at 10:40-14:30 (Break: 12:10-13:00) ※Flyer
Election-Night Forecasting II: Machine learning methods in social science
Thursday, December 12th, 2019 at 10:40-14:30 (Break: 12:10-13:00) ※Flyer - Venue
Room #804 Building #3, Waseda Campus - Participation
Registration required
If you attend this seminar, please send 1. Your Name and 2. Your Affiliation 3. Your Attendance of Each seminar (December 11th and/or 12th), to the following Email address by December 9th.
takashi-wi▲fuji.waseda.jp (Please replace ▲ with @) - Language
English - Audience
Students, faculty members, and the general public - Speaker
Dr. Momar Dieng, consultant at the World Bank - Host
Center for Positive/Empirical Analysis of Political Economy, Top Global University Project, Waseda University - Co-hosted by
Organization for Regional and Inter-regional Studies, Waseda University
December 11th, 2019 at 10:40-14:30
Election-Night Forecasting I: Statistical methods in election observation
Part 1 (10:40-12:10): Introduction to the quick count: overall methodology and statistical background
Part 2 (13:00-14:30): Quick count simulation exercise and related data forensics
【Abstract】
Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT), also known as a Quick Count, is an election observation methodology that forecasts election results based on a random, statistically representative sample of polling stations. It is used by political parties, civil society organizations and international election observers for independent verification (or challenge) of election results. This seminar will describe in detail how to plan for and conduct a quick count, including a hands-on simulation of the process with real election data. It will also introduce selected forensic data analysis techniques that can be used to audit the full election results once they are available.
December 12th, 2019 at 10:40-14:30
Election-Night Forecasting II: Machine learning methods in social science
Part 1 (10:40-12:10): Introduction to machine learning methods (clustering algorithms)
Part 2 (13:00-14:30): Application to election-night forecasting (simulation exercise)
【Abstract】
Artificial intelligence methods are increasingly used in the social sciences to tackle challenging predictive problems. The forecasting of election results is one such area of active research that is fueled by the impact of social media on politics, and the availability of near real-time information on, and from political actors and processes in unprecedented volumes and variety. In this seminar we will first review existing methodologies for pre-election forecasts (including exit polls) and election-night forecasts. We will then focus on election-night forecasting and explain how machine learning can be used to obtain very accurate predictions in record time from results obtained in an uncontrolled, and often non-random way, such as those reported by the news media. This stands in contrast to the random sampling conducted in classical parallel vote tabulations which relies on a predetermined set of polling stations. We will apply different machine learning (clustering) algorithms to real election returns data set and assess the performance of the different approaches by comparing their convergence to the results.
【Lecturer’s bio】
Momar Dieng is a mathematician, development practitioner, and election forensics expert. He has been a visiting faculty in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Arizona, and regularly lectures on quantitative tools for economics and public policy at Harvard University. He received his PhD in Mathematics from the University of California at Davis. He also studied at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government as well as Harvard’s Graduate School of Education. He was a Senior Policy Advisor for UNDP Liberia and Senior Technical and Policy Advisor in Senegal’s Ministry of Education.
