{"id":865,"date":"2019-11-26T16:09:05","date_gmt":"2019-11-26T07:09:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/?p=865"},"modified":"2019-11-26T16:45:50","modified_gmt":"2019-11-26T07:45:50","slug":"%e3%80%90%e7%92%b0%e5%a2%83%e7%b5%8c%e6%b8%88%e3%83%bb%e7%b5%8c%e5%96%b6%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e6%89%80%e3%80%91%e3%80%8c%e3%83%91%e3%83%aa%e5%8d%94%e5%ae%9a%e3%81%a8%e3%82%ab%e3%83%bc%e3%83%9c-13-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/news\/2019\/11\/26\/865\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u30bd\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\uff06\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30ad\u30e3\u30d4\u30bf\u30eb\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u3011Seminar by Prof. Jonathan S. Skinner \u306e\u958b\u50ac\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b \uff0812\/12\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u30bd\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\uff06\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30fb\u30ad\u30e3\u30d4\u30bf\u30eb\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/a><\/p>\n

\u65e9\u7a32\u7530\u5927\u5b66\u30b9\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30d0\u30eb\u5927\u5b66\u5275\u6210\u652f\u63f4\u4e8b\u696d \u5b9f\u8a3c\u653f\u6cbb\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u62e0\u70b9\u3001\u306a\u3089\u3073\u306b\u3001\u73fe\u4ee3\u653f\u6cbb\u7d4c\u6e08\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u306e\u300c\u751f\u6d3b\u7fd2\u6163\u75c5\u4e88\u9632\u65bd\u7b56\u3068\u52b4\u50cd\u751f\u7523\u6027\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u5b9f\u8a3c\u7814\u7a76\u300d\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u4f1a\u3001\u91cd\u70b9\u9818\u57df\u7814\u7a76\u3000\u30bd\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb&\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30fb\u30ad\u30e3\u30d4\u30bf\u30eb\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08WISH\uff09\u3067\u306f\u300112\u670812\u65e5\uff08\u6728\uff09\u306bJonathan Skinner\u6559\u6388\uff08Dartmouth College\uff09\u3092\u304a\u8fce\u3048\u3057\u3066\u30bb\u30df\u30ca\u30fc\u3092\u4f01\u753b\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002
\nWe would like to inform you that Center for Positive\/Empirical Analysis of Political Economy, Waseda University and the WINPEC Public Opinion Survey Methodology Research Group is organizing a seminar with Professor Jonathan Skinner (Dartmouth College) as follows. I hope that you can join the seminar.<\/p>\n

Date\/\u65e5\u6642<\/h4>\n

December 12 (Thu) \/ 12\u670812\u65e5\uff08\u6728\uff0916:30-18:00<\/p>\n

Venue\/\u5834\u6240<\/h4>\n

Room #406 on the 4th floor, the Building 3 , Waseda Campus \/ \u65e9\u7a32\u7530\u30ad\u30e3\u30f3\u30d1\u30b93\u53f7\u99284\u968e406<\/p>\n

Speaker\/\u8b1b\u5e2b<\/h4>\n

Jonathan Skinner (Professor, Dartmouth College, Department of Economics)
\nhttps:\/\/economics.dartmouth.edu\/people\/jonathan-skinner<\/a> \/<\/p>\n

Title\/\u8ad6\u984c<\/h4>\n

\u201dOverconfidence and the Adoption of Medical Technology (with Diego Comin and Douglas Staiger)\u201d<\/p>\n

Language\/\u8a00\u8a9e<\/h4>\n

English \/ \u82f1\u8a9e<\/p>\n

Participants\/\u5bfe\u8c61<\/h4>\n

Open to all students, faculty members, and the general public \/\u65e9\u7a32\u7530\u5927\u5b66\u5b66\u90e8\u751f\u3001\u5927\u5b66\u9662\u751f\u3001\u6559\u8077\u54e1\u3001\u4e00\u822c<\/p>\n

Registration\/\u4e8b\u524d\u7533\u8fbc<\/h4>\n

No registration required \/ \u4e0d\u8981<\/p>\n

Abstract\/\u8981\u65e8<\/h4>\n

There are remarkably large differences in the timing of adoption and intensity of use of new technologies. What factors determine such differences?\u00a0 Is it because of higher returns to using the new technology, or systematic overconfidence about their expected returns? We address these questions using a unique registry dataset for a quarter-million patients with implantable cardiac defibrillators (ICDs), a medical device that reduces the risk of sudden cardiac arrest. We develop a structural model of Bayesian learning that allows for misperception of provider skill that can lead to overly optimistic or pessimistic behavior.\u00a0 Briefly, our estimates suggest that for ICDs, the most rapid adopters were overly optimistic, leading both to high utilization rates and for these early innovators, below-average returns to the technology.\u00a0 We find that overconfidence can explain half of hospital-level variation in risk-adjusted mortality and nearly three-quarters of the variation in adoption and use.\u00a0 In addition, the model predicts, correctly, that those hospitals exhibiting the greatest optimism about their own ability are the ones that scale back quickest. These results suggest an important role for misperception (both optimistic and pessimistic) in explaining the wide variation in adoption and use of new technologies, and suggests caution in equating rapid diffusion to productivity gains.<\/p>\n

\u5171\u50ac\uff1aSGU\u5b9f\u8a3c\u653f\u6cbb\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u62e0\u70b9\u3001
\n\u73fe\u4ee3\u653f\u6cbb\u7d4c\u6e08\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u300c\u751f\u6d3b\u7fd2\u6163\u75c5\u4e88\u9632\u65bd\u7b56\u3068\u52b4\u50cd\u751f\u7523\u6027\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u5b9f\u8a3c\u7814\u7a76\u300d\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u4f1a
\n\u91cd\u70b9\u9818\u57df\u7814\u7a76\u3000\u30bd\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb&\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30fb\u30ad\u30e3\u30d4\u30bf\u30eb\u7814\u7a76\u6240
\nCo-sponsor: Center for Positive\/Empirical Analysis of Political Economy, Waseda University and \u00a0Research Project on Survey Methodology, WINPEC Waseda Institute of social and Human Capital Studies(WISH)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u30bd\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\uff06\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30fb\u30ad\u30e3\u30d4\u30bf\u30eb\u7814\u7a76\u6240 \u65e9\u7a32\u7530\u5927\u5b66\u30b9\u30fc\u30d1\u30fc\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30d0\u30eb\u5927\u5b66\u5275\u6210\u652f\u63f4\u4e8b\u696d \u5b9f\u8a3c\u653f\u6cbb\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u62e0\u70b9\u3001\u306a\u3089\u3073\u306b\u3001\u73fe\u4ee3\u653f\u6cbb\u7d4c\u6e08\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u306e\u300c\u751f\u6d3b\u7fd2\u6163\u75c5\u4e88\u9632\u65bd\u7b56\u3068\u52b4\u50cd\u751f\u7523\u6027\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u5b9f\u8a3c\u7814\u7a76\u300d\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u4f1a\u3001\u91cd\u70b9\u9818\u57df\u7814\u7a76\u3000\u30bd\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[28],"class_list":["post-865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-research"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=865"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":866,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/865\/revisions\/866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/inst\/ori\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}