On December 14, 2020, Waseda University’s Global Asia Research Center hosted an online seminar by Mauro Bonaiuti, a professor of Economics at the University of Turin and a specialist in bioeconomics and systems theory. Professor Mauro is a protagonist of degrowth and solidarity economy whose most representative work is The Great Transition (London: Routledge, 2014).

Professor Bonaiuti spoke on the topic of The Rise and Fall of Advanced Capitalist Societies. Complexity and diminishing returns in comparative perspective. He introduced various important concepts related to historical changes in technology, economic growth, and productivity. Particular attention was given to the concept of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and its growth, or lack thereof, in recent decades.

After the comparison of the TFP growth of the U.S., EU, and Japan, Professor Bonaiuti came to the conclusion that the TFP growth trend confirmed his hypothesis called the “Great Wave” because the U.S., EU, and Japan reveal a decline in TFP growth since the late thirties and early sixties respectively. This cannot be explained as a simple “crisis” (i.e., short term/reversible phenomenon). This conclusion appears to be consistent with research in other fields, for example, in energy (Hall et al., 2008), mineral extraction (Bardi, 2014), agriculture (Coelli and Prasada Rap, 2005), health, education, and scientific research (Tainter 2006; Strumsky et al., 2010).

Professor Bonaiuti also concluded is that a complex approach leads to different conclusions compared to standard or secular stagnation theory. It questions the present institutional order of advanced capitalist societies, and also it opens up future scenarios (collapse, fortress, new expansion, serene or “happy” degrowth) in which Business as usual is not an option. Professor Bonaiuti argued that the Decline of Marginal Returns approach offered a new way to interpret historical incidents such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the economic crisis in Greece, globalization and the rise of “disaster capitalism.”