{"id":12641,"date":"2026-10-29T13:28:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T04:28:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/?p=12641"},"modified":"2026-11-02T16:12:16","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T07:12:16","slug":"ueda-k-watanabe-k-restaurant-prices-measuring-service-inflation-from-scanner-data-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/news\/2026\/10\/29\/12641\/","title":{"rendered":"Rong Fu, Senhu Wang, Yichen Shen, <strong>Haruko Noguchi<br><br><strong>Causal Effects of Education on Marriage and Fertility in Japan: A Research Note on a Quasi-Experimental Approach Utilizing Zodiac Superstition as an Exogenous Shock"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1215\/00703370-12530548\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fu, R., Wang, S., Shen, Y., &amp; Noguchi, H. (2026). Causal Effects of Education on Marriage and Fertility in Japan: A Research Note on a Quasi-Experimental Approach Utilizing Zodiac Superstition as an Exogenous Shock. <em>Demography<\/em>, 63(2), 375\u2013390.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u89e3\u8aac\/Abstract<br \/>\n<\/strong>\u8fd1\u5e74\u3001\u7d50\u5a5a\u7387\u3084\u51fa\u751f\u7387\u306e\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3092\u80cc\u666f\u306b\u3001\u5973\u6027\u306e\u6559\u80b2\u304c\u5bb6\u65cf\u5f62\u6210\u306b\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u5f71\u97ff\u304c\u6ce8\u76ee\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u3068\u5bb6\u65cf\u5f62\u6210\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u306f\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u306e\u30b8\u30a7\u30f3\u30c0\u30fc\u898f\u7bc4\u3084\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u7570\u306a\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u6307\u6458\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u306f\u30011966\u5e74\u306e\u300c\u4e19\u5348\u300d\u306e\u8ff7\u4fe1\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u3001\u5973\u6027\u306e\u6559\u80b2\u304c\u7d50\u5a5a\u3084\u51fa\u7523\u306b\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u306a\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u691c\u8a3c\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u30021966\u5e74\u306b\u306f\u4e19\u5348\u306e\u8ff7\u4fe1\u3092\u80cc\u666f\u306b\u51fa\u751f\u6570\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u6e1b\u5c11\u3057\u305f\u305f\u3081\u30011967\u5e741\uff5e3\u6708\u751f\u307e\u308c\u306e\u5973\u6027\u306f\u3001\u51fa\u751f\u6570\u306e\u5c11\u306a\u30441966\u5e74\u751f\u307e\u308c\u306e\u4eba\u3005\u3068\u540c\u3058\u5b66\u5e74\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u8ff7\u4fe1\u306e\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u306a\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u305a\u306b\u6559\u80b2\u6a5f\u4f1a\u3092\u3081\u3050\u308b\u7af6\u4e89\u306e\u7de9\u548c\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6069\u6075\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u306e\u66a6\u5e74\u3068\u5b66\u5e74\u306e\u305a\u308c\u3092\u5229\u7528\u3057\u305f\u5206\u6790\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3001\u9032\u5b66\u7af6\u4e89\u306e\u7de9\u548c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u7279\u306b\u77ed\u5927\u3084\u5927\u5b66\u3078\u306e\u9032\u5b66\u304c\u5897\u3048\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u6559\u80b2\u6a5f\u4f1a\u304c\u62e1\u5927\u3057\u305f\u5973\u6027\u306f\u3001\u521d\u5a5a\u304c\u7d040.04\u5e74\uff08\u7d042\u9031\u9593\uff09\u3001\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b50\u306e\u51fa\u7523\u304c\u7d040.11\u5e74\uff08\u7d0440\u65e5\uff09\u9045\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5dee\u306f\u5e74\u9f62\u3068\u3068\u3082\u306b\u7e2e\u5c0f\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u6a5f\u4f1a\u306e\u62e1\u5927\u306e\u6069\u6075\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u305f\u5973\u6027\u306f\u3001\u7d50\u5a5a\u6642\u306e\u5c31\u696d\u7387\u304c\u9ad8\u304f\u3001\u3084\u3084\u5e74\u9f62\u306e\u82e5\u3044\u914d\u5076\u8005\u3068\u7d50\u5a5a\u3059\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u307f\u3089\u308c\u305f\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u7d50\u5a5a\u524d\u306e\u540c\u68f2\u3084\u7d50\u5a5a\u6642\u306e\u59d3\u306e\u9078\u629e\u306b\u306f\u5927\u304d\u306a\u5909\u5316\u304c\u307f\u3089\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002\u6559\u80b2\u304c\u5bb6\u65cf\u5f62\u6210\u306b\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u306a\u5f71\u97ff\u306f\u9650\u5b9a\u7684\u304b\u3064\u4e00\u6642\u7684\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u7d50\u5a5a\u3084\u51fa\u7523\u306e\u52d5\u5411\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u3046\u3048\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u3060\u3051\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u306a\u74b0\u5883\u3084\u30b8\u30a7\u30f3\u30c0\u30fc\u898f\u7bc4\u3082\u91cd\u8981\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u793a\u5506\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Declining marriage and fertility rates have drawn attention to the role of women\u2019s education, but the relationship between education and family formation may depend on gender norms and institutions. This study examines the causal effect of education on family formation in Japan by exploiting the 1966 \u201cFirehorse\u201d superstition. Because births fell sharply that year, women born in January\u2013March 1967 entered school with the smaller 1966 cohort and faced less competition for educational opportunities without being directly affected by the superstition. Exploiting this mismatch between the calendar year and the Japanese school year, the study finds that reduced educational competition increased women\u2019s educational attainment, especially at the junior college and university levels. Greater educational opportunities delayed first marriage by about 0.04 years (approximately two weeks) and first childbirth by about 0.11 years (approximately 40 days), but these differences largely diminished with age. Women who benefited from greater educational opportunities were also more likely to be working at the time of marriage and tended to marry slightly younger spouses, while premarital cohabitation and surname choice changed little. Overall, education had only a modest and largely temporary direct effect on family formation, suggesting that broader institutional conditions and gender norms also play important roles in shaping marriage and fertility patterns.<\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u5b66\u30d7\u30ec\u30b9\u30ea\u30ea\u30fc\u30b9: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/top\/en\/news\/87942\">Firehorse Superstition Shows Women\u2019s Education Doesn\u2019t Affect Family Formation in Japan \u2013 Waseda University<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fu, R., Wang, S., Shen, Y., &amp; Noguchi, H. (2026). Causal Effects of Education on Marriage and Fertility in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12833,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[102,66,101,32],"class_list":["post-12641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","tag-general-en","tag-research-en","tag-general","tag-research"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12641"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12641\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12645,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12641\/revisions\/12645"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12833"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}