{"id":11502,"date":"2026-04-17T09:43:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T00:43:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/?p=11502"},"modified":"2026-04-17T09:44:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T00:44:18","slug":"%e5%ae%9f%e8%a8%bc%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e5%ad%a6%e3%83%af%e3%83%bc%e3%82%af%e3%82%b7%e3%83%a7%e3%83%83%e3%83%97%e3%81%ae%e3%81%94%e6%a1%88%e5%86%85%ef%bc%88workshop-announcement-december-2-1700-3-2-3-2-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/news\/2026\/04\/17\/11502\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5b9f\u8a3c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30d7\u306e\u3054\u6848\u5185\uff08Workshop Announcement: April 21, 17:00-\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u5b9f\u8a3c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30d7\u306e\u3054\u6848\u5185\u00a0 (Workshop Announcement: April 30, 13:10-)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u30ab\u30bf\u30fc\u30cb\u30a2\u5927\u5b66\u306e<\/span>Carammia Marcello<\/span><\/a>\u51c6\u6559\u6388\u3068\u3001\u30cf\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u30c9\u5927\u5b66<\/span>IQSS<\/span>\u306e<\/span>Stefano Iacus<\/span><\/a>\u6c0f\u3092\u304a\u8fce\u3048\u3057\u3001\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30d7\u3092\u958b\u50ac\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/span>
\n<\/span>\u3069\u306a\u305f\u3067\u3082\u3054\u53c2\u52a0\u3044\u305f\u3060\u3051\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e8b\u524d\u767b\u9332\u306f\u4e0d\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002\u305c\u3072\u3054\u53c2\u52a0\u4e0b\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/span>
\n<\/span>We\u00a0are\u00a0very pleased\u00a0to host<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Professor\u00a0<\/span>Carammia Marcello<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(<\/span>University of Catania<\/span>)<\/span>, and Director<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Stefano Iacus<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(<\/span>IQSS<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>Harvard\u00a0University<\/span>)\u00a0<\/span>for a special talk<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>Pre-registration is not\u00a0required<\/span>.\u00a0<\/span>We look forward to your participation.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u6642\uff1a<\/span><\/b>2026<\/span><\/b>\u5e74<\/span><\/b>4<\/span><\/b>\u6708<\/span><\/b>21<\/span><\/b>\u65e5\uff08\u706b\uff09<\/span><\/b>17<\/span><\/b>:<\/span><\/b>00<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>pm \u2013\u00a018<\/span><\/b>:<\/span><\/b>40\u00a0pm<\/span><\/b>
\n<\/span>Date and Time:\u00a0Tuesday<\/span><\/b>,<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span>April\u00a021<\/span><\/b>,<\/span><\/b>\u00a02026<\/span><\/b>,\u00a0<\/span><\/b>17:00<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>pm \u2013\u00a018:40\u00a0pm<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

\u5834\u6240\uff1a<\/span><\/b>3<\/span><\/b>\u53f7\u9928406<\/span><\/b>
\n<\/span>Venue<\/span><\/b>\uff1a<\/span><\/b>Room<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>406<\/span><\/b>,\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Building 3, Waseda Campus<\/span><\/b><\/a>,\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Waseda\u00a0University<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

\u8a00\u8a9e<\/span><\/b>Language<\/span><\/b>\uff1a\u82f1\u8a9e<\/span><\/b>English<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

<<\/span><\/b>Carammia\u00a0Marcello><\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong>
\n<\/span>
\n\u30bf\u30a4\u30c8\u30eb<\/span><\/b>\u00a0Title<\/span><\/b>\uff1a<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span>Policy Attention and Democratic Representation: Evidence from 30 Years of European Parliamentary Questions<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8981\u65e8<\/span><\/b>Abstract<\/span><\/b>\uff1a<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span>Marcello\u00a0Carammia\u00a0(University of Catania), Federico Russo (University of Salento)<\/span>
\n<\/span>How well do elected representatives attend to the issues that matter to citizens? The question of policy responsiveness \u2014 whether legislators’ agendas reflect public priorities and real-world conditions \u2014 is central to theories of democratic representation, yet comparative empirical evidence\u00a0remains\u00a0limited by data availability,\u00a0short time\u00a0horizons, and institutional scope.<\/span>
\n<\/span>This paper advances the study of policy attention and representation by exploiting a uniquely\u00a0advantageous\u00a0setting: the European Parliament, where ~3,000 MEPs from 29 countries and nine party families have filed more than 180,000 written questions across six legislative terms (1994\u20132024). This institutional context offers exceptional variation in national backgrounds, partisan affiliations, and exposure to heterogeneous economic and social conditions \u2014 all within a single legislative body\u00a0operating\u00a0under common rules.<\/span>
\n<\/span>Using the Comparative Agendas Project coding framework applied via fine-tuned large language models, we first describe how policy attention is distributed and how it shifts over time and across crises. We then model the extent to which MEPs’ issue agendas respond to real-world problem indicators (unemployment, migration, economic performance) and to\u00a0citizens’\u00a0stated priorities as captured by Eurobarometer “Most Important Problem” data. The analysis contributes to the broader literature on policy responsiveness and agenda-setting by providing large-N, longitudinal evidence on the conditions under which elected representatives’ attention tracks \u2014 or\u00a0fails to\u00a0track \u2014 the concerns of the public they serve.<\/span><\/p>\n

<Stefano Iacus><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u30bf\u30a4\u30c8\u30eb<\/span><\/b>\u00a0Title<\/span><\/b>\uff1a<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span>Dynamic Attention (DynAttn): Interpretable High-Dimensional\u00a0Spatio-Temporal Forecasting (with Application to Conflict Fatalities)<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8981\u65e8<\/span><\/b>Abstract<\/span><\/b>\uff1a<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span>Dynamic Attention (DynAttn): Interpretable High-Dimensional\u00a0Spatio-Temporal Forecasting (with Application to Conflict Fatalities)<\/span>
\n<\/span>\u00a0Forecasting conflict-related fatalities remains a central challenge in political science and policy analysis due to the sparse, bursty, and highly non-stationary nature of violence data. We introduce DynAttn, an interpretable dynamic-attention forecasting framework for high-dimensional spatio-temporal count processes. DynAttn combines rolling-window estimation, shared elastic-net feature gating, a compact weight-tied self-attention encoder, and a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) likelihood. This architecture produces calibrated multi-horizon forecasts of expected casualties and exceedance probabilities, while retaining transparent diagnostics through feature gates, ablation analysis, and elasticity measures.<\/span>
\n<\/span>We evaluate\u00a0DynAttn\u00a0using global country-level and high-resolution PRIO-grid-level conflict data from the VIEWS forecasting system, benchmarking it against established statistical and machine-learning approaches, including\u00a0DynENet, LSTM, Prophet,\u00a0PatchTST, and the official VIEWS baseline. Across forecast horizons from one to twelve months,\u00a0DynAttn\u00a0consistently achieves\u00a0substantially higher\u00a0predictive accuracy, with particularly large gains in sparse grid-level settings where competing models often become unstable or degrade sharply.<\/span>
\n<\/span>Beyond predictive performance,\u00a0DynAttn\u00a0enables structured interpretation of regional conflict dynamics. In our application, cross-regional analyses show that short-run conflict persistence and spatial diffusion form the core predictive backbone, while climate stress acts either as a conditional amplifier or a primary driver depending on the\u00a0conflict\u00a0theater.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5171\u50ac\uff1a<\/span><\/b>
\n<\/span>\u65e9\u7a32\u7530\u5927\u5b66\u73fe\u4ee3\u653f\u6cbb\u7d4c\u6e08\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u3000\u4e16\u8ad6\u30fb\u30e1\u30c7\u30a3\u30a2\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u4f1a\u3000<\/span>
\n<\/span>Public Opinion and Media Data Research Group, WINPEC,\u00a0Waseda\u00a0University<\/span><\/p>\n

Contact:<\/span><\/b>\uff1a<\/span><\/b>
\n<\/span>\u65e5\u91ce\u611b\u90ce\uff08\u65e9\u7a32\u7530\u5927\u5b66\uff09\u00a0<\/span>Airo Hino<\/span>\u00a0(<\/span>Waseda\u00a0University)<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>airo@waseda.jp<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5b9f\u8a3c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u30ef\u30fc\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30d7\u306e\u3054\u6848\u5185\u00a0 (Workshop Announcement: April 30, 13:10-) \u30ab\u30bf\u30fc\u30cb\u30a2\u5927\u5b66\u306eCarammia Marcello\u51c6\u6559\u6388\u3068\u3001\u30cf\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u30c9\u5927\u5b66IQSS\u306eStefano […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11505,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[103,1],"tags":[99,102,18,101],"class_list":["post-11502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-en","category-news","tag-events-en","tag-general-en","tag-events","tag-general"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11502","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11502"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11502\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11510,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11502\/revisions\/11510"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11502"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11502"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fpse\/winpec\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11502"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}