予定表 -詳細情報-
| 件名 | WS 籠谷公司 |
| 開始日時 | 2012年 1月 12日 (木曜日) 16時30分 (GMT+09:00) |
| 終了日時 | 2012年 1月 12日 (木曜日) 18時00分 (GMT+09:00) |
| 場所 | 1号館 現政研会議室 |
| 詳細 | 【報告者】籠谷公司氏（Trinity college Dublin, Assistant Professor) 【報告タイトル】Find Your Weakness: Domestic Turmoil and Deterrence Failure 【日時】2012年1月12日 【場所】1号館 現政研会議室 【概要】 How can the adversaries detect the opportunities to challenge the target? The belief update in the challenger's side has not been carefully examined in the literature. We explore how political dynamics in the target side can affect the likelihood of deterrence failure. To investigate the details of security environments, we focus on Northeast Asia and conduct a time-series analysis of Japan's deterrence against its potential adversaries. With the data of scrambles by the Japan Air Self-Defense Force, the results show that Japan is more likely to fail to deter challenges from China, North Korea, Russia, and South Korea when Japanese prime minister changes. In contrast, the movements of public opinions and business climate in Japan do not affect deterrence failure. The results provide some implications for the deterrence literature, especially, the selection mechanism behind conflict initiation from the view of the challenger's belief update. |
| カテゴリー | ワークショップ・セミナー |
