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¾ÜºÙ | GLOPE II Lunch Time Seminar ¡ÚÊó¹ð¼Ô¡Û¡§ÈøºêÆØ»Ê»á¡ÊÁá°ðÅÄÂç³ØÀ¯¼£³Ø¸¦µæ²Ê¡Ë ¡ÚÊó¹ð¥¿¥¤¥È¥ë¡Û¡§Who Survives?: Electoral System, Dominant Party System, and Ministerial Turnover in Italy between 1948 and 1992 ¡ÚÆü»þ¡Û¡§7·î26Æü¡Ê²Ð¡Ë12:15¡Á12:50 ¡Ú¾ì½ê¡Û¡§1¹æ´Û401¶µ¼¼ *The talk will be given in English. ¡Ú³µÍ×¡Û My paper discusses the factors that influenced the duration of ministers¡Ç mandates in Italy from 1948 to 1992. To be specific, using existing and original datasets and survival analysis, I aim to indentify the conditions under which ministers are more likely to resign. In light of the question, Italy stands as a worthy candidate for this research. The First Republic of Italy had been regarded ¡Èinstable¡É owing to the frequent change in prime ministers, rebuilding of coalitions, and cabinet reshuffles: 25 members assumed prime ministership and 19 coalitions were formed between 1948 and 1998 in Italy, while the Netherlands witnessed 7 changes in prime ministership and 2 coalition changes and Denmark witnessed 5 changes in prime ministership and 3 coalition changes during that period. These events have led to the emergence of the stereotype that Italian governments are short-lived and dormant. After fragmenting the observation to one unit and shifting focus to the duration of each minister¡Çs mandate, instead of the government, however, we notice that some ministerial posts change according to cabinet changes on the one hand, while on the other hand, other ministers continue to be in charge of the same posts even if the cabinet they serve terminates. I shed light on the characteristics of electoral system to systematically understand the variation. |
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