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¡Ú¥¿¥¤¥È¥ë¡Û¡§Under What Condition Can Voters Make Rational Choice?: Voter Preference and Choice in Old-Age Pension Reform in Japan

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Democratic theories assume that voters are rational in the sense that they have transitive preference over alternatives, and make choice according to their preferences. Decent amount of literature, however, has shown that most voters are actually irrational, lacking political knowledge necessary for rational preference formation and failing to make ¡Ècorrect¡É choice. Under what condition can voters make rational choice? Previous studies have explored this question, using such independent variables as political interest, education, heuristics, and time and monetary incentives. These studies are, however, not necessarily successful in examining to what extent voters are rational simply because they do not directly test voter rationality. In this paper, we test to what extent voters are capable of rational choice, and what the determinants of rational choice are, using original questions in a survey conducted in August 2010 in Japan. First, in the survey, respondents were asked which of three characteristics of old age pension systems is more preferred pairwisely so that one can tell whether they have transitive preferences. Second, respondents were asked which of two old age pension systems is more preferred so that one can tell if they make choices consistent with their preferences. Finally, we explore the determinants of rational preference formation and choice. This study will bridge the study of political psychology with the study of social choice theory, and contribute to creating sustainable social and political systems.

*The talk will be given in Japanese.
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