{"id":15897,"date":"2026-10-29T10:00:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T01:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/soc\/?p=15897"},"modified":"2026-10-29T11:09:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T02:09:53","slug":"2022%e5%b9%b47%e6%9c%88-%e7%94%a3%e6%a5%ad%e7%b5%8c%e5%96%b6%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e6%89%80%e3%82%a4%e3%83%99%e3%83%b3%e3%83%88%e3%81%ae%e3%81%8a%e7%9f%a5%e3%82%89%e3%81%9b-2-2-3-3-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/soc\/news\/15897","title":{"rendered":"2026\u5e74\u5ea6 \u7523\u696d\u7d4c\u55b6\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u306e\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u3010\u7523\u7814\u8b1b\u6f14\u4f1a\u3011<\/p>\n

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\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u30c6\u30fc\u30de<\/td>\n\u3000\u300eWaseda Organizational and Financial Economics Seminar\uff1aShortages, Liquidity, and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Prices: Theory and Evidence from Commodity Markets\u300f<\/p>\n

\uff08\u82f1\u8a9e\u3067\u306e\u3054\u5831\u544a\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u8b1b\u6f14\u8005<\/td>\n\u4f50\u85e4\u3000\u512a\u7d00 \u6c0f\u00a0\u00a0\uff08\u6771\u4eac\u5927\u5b66 \u5927\u5b66\u9662\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u79d1\u9644\u5c5e\u91d1\u878d\u6559\u80b2\u7814\u7a76\u30bb\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc \u7279\u4efb\u8b1b\u5e2b\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u8981\u65e8<\/td>\nWe find that monetary policy shocks have no significant effect on commodity futures prices when markets are in backwardation, that is, when futures prices lie below spot prices. Because backwardation signals supply constraints, reflecting a positive convenience yield that arises under tight supply or low inventories, this finding reveals a new channel for understanding the effects of monetary policy under supply shortages. Our model to investigate this mechanism relies on the inventory arbitrage of commercial traders and the rational inattention of financial traders, which together replicate the higher price response to the aggregate demand shock under ample inventories than under tight inventories. To reinforce our empirical findings, we conduct two complementary analyses. The first tests the assumption that the basis is informative about storage conditions by constructing an Inventory Constraint Index, which closely tracks observed inventory data from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The second examines the liquidity channel, an alternative mechanism through which monetary policy may affect commodity futures markets. Both analyses support our interpretation: while illiquidity is priced through changes in interest rates, inventory tightness, as indicated by the basis, remains the primary transmission channel.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5bfe\u8c61<\/td>\n\u5b66\u751f\u30fb\u6559\u8077\u54e1\u30fb\u4e00\u822c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\u25ce2026\u5e7411\u67084\u65e5(\u6c34) \u8b1b\u6f14\u4f1a\uff08\u8a73\u7d30\u306f\u3053\u3061\u3089<\/a>\uff09<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u30c6\u30fc\u30de<\/td>\nThe German Life Insurance Market and the Impact of Pension Reform (tentative)\u3000\uff08\u82f1\u8a9e\u3067\u306e\u3054\u5831\u544a\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u8b1b\u6f14\u8005<\/td>\nAlexander Bohnert \u6c0f\uff08Professor of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, Munich University of Applied Sciences, Germany\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u8981\u65e8<\/td>\nGermany is undertaking significant pension reforms in response\u00a0to demographic and economic challenges. This lecture will provide\u00a0an overview of the German life insurance market and discuss the\u00a0potential implications of these reforms for the life insurance industry.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5bfe\u8c61<\/td>\n\u5b66\u751f\u30fb\u6559\u8077\u54e1\u30fb\u4e00\u822c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\u30c6\u30fc\u30de<\/td>\nPractical Use of Statistical Learning in Non-Life Insurance\u00a0 \u00a0\uff08\u82f1\u8a9e\u3067\u306e\u3054\u5831\u544a\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u8b1b\u6f14\u8005<\/td>\nBrian Fannin \u6c0f \uff08\u56fd\u969b\u30a2\u30af\u30c1\u30e5\u30a2\u30ea\u30fc\u4f1a ASTIN Board Chair\uff09<\/p>\n

Warda Hadaoui \u6c0f \uff08\u56fd\u969b\u30a2\u30af\u30c1\u30e5\u30a2\u30ea\u30fc\u4f1a ASTIN Board\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u8981\u65e8<\/td>\nOver the past decade, statistical learning techniques have increasingly been adopted in Non-Life insurance. Techniques such as cross-validation and non-linear models have provided actuaries with new ways to develop and assess predictive models, complementing more traditional statistical approaches.<\/p>\n

In this workshop, speakers from ASTIN will introduce how these techniques are being used in practice and how they have changed the way predictive models are developed and applied in Non-Life insurance. Through practical examples, they will discuss what these methods can offer and how they can be incorporated into insurance business processes and decision-making.<\/p>\n

The workshop will also explore some of the practical challenges involved in adopting statistical learning techniques, including model interpretation, validation, implementation, and the balance between model performance and practical usability.<\/p>\n

Rather than simply presenting statistical techniques, the workshop will be interactive, with opportunities for participants to ask questions, share their perspectives, and discuss practical issues with the speakers. Through these examples and discussions, we hope participants will gain a better understanding of how statistical learning is shaping the actuarial works in Non-Life insurance and what actuaries can contribute to its effective use.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u30c6\u30fc\u30de<\/td>\nWaseda \u2013 USP Joint Seminar on Insurance, Pensions, and Risk Management\u3000\uff08\u82f1\u8a9e\u3067\u306e\u3054\u5831\u544a\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u8b1b\u6f14\u8005<\/td>\nPresentation 2<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lu\u00eds Eduardo Afonso, Professor, University of S\u00e3o Paulo<\/p>\n

Title: The ex ante fiscal and redistributive impacts of an NDC pension system in Brazil<\/p>\n

Presentation 3<\/strong><\/p>\n

Miho Onzo, Professor, Takachiho University<\/p>\n

Title: Institutional Design and Retirement Security for Cross-Border Workers: Japan\u2019s Social Security Agreements with the United States and Korea<\/p>\n

Presentation 4<\/strong><\/p>\n

Soyoung Lim, Assistant Professor, Waseda University<\/p>\n

Title: Trade Insurance under Geopolitical Risk: Institutional and Policy Responses in Japan and South Korea<\/p>\n

Presentation 5<\/strong><\/p>\n

Akio Hoshino, Associate Professor, Waseda University<\/p>\n

Title: Mathematical Foundations of Non-Mass Risk Insurance: Measuring the Degree to which the Law of Large Numbers Applies through Homogeneity, Volume, and Independence<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\u5bfe\u8c61<\/td>\n\u5b66\u751f\u30fb\u6559\u8077\u54e1\u30fb\u4e00\u822c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u30c6\u30fc\u30de<\/td>\nManaging Investments under Bargaining in A Coopetitive Supply Chain\u3000\u3000\uff08\u82f1\u8a9e\u3067\u306e\u3054\u5831\u544a\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u8b1b\u6f14\u8005<\/td>\nMichael Kopel\u3000\u6c0f\uff08Professor, University of Graz\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u8981\u65e8<\/td>\nfocus on the parties\u2019 asymmetric bargaining positions: the retailer can only profit when bargaining reaches an agreement while the manufacturer can still offer its product if bargaining fails. As a consequence, we find that the investments have opposite effects on the surplus that is shared between the supply chain partners. The retailer\u2019s investment always increases the trade surplus, whereas the manufacturer\u2019s investment reduces the trade surplus. This gives rise to counterintuitive results. The parties\u2019 profits are reduced, if (1) the consumers\u2019 common willingness to pay for the product increases, (2) the consumers\u2019 \u201cdislike\u201d of online purchases from the manufacturer decreases, and (3) both firms\u2019 investment efficiency increases. Our results hold under linear and nonlinear demands, under quantity and price competition, and with a linear and nonlinear supply contract. We further find that an increase in the manufacturer\u2019s bargaining power can actually reduce the manufacturer\u2019s profit, increase the retailer\u2019s profit, but hurt the supply chain.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5bfe\u8c61<\/td>\n\u5b66\u751f\u30fb\u6559\u8077\u54e1\u30fb\u4e00\u822c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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 <\/p>\n

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\u3010\u305d\u306e\u4ed6\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u3011<\/p>\n

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2025\u5e743\u670815\u65e5(\u571f) \u3000\u7b2c29\u56de\u7523\u7814\u30a2\u30ab\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u30fb\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30e9\u30e0\u300c\u7d4c\u55b6\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u306e\u8ecc\u8de1\u3068\u5c55\u671b\u300d<\/a>\u304c\u958b\u50ac\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u3000\u65e9\u7a32\u7530\u5927\u5b66\u5546\u5b66\u5b66\u8853\u9662\u3000\u5742\u91ce\u53cb\u662d\u6559\u6388\u9000\u8077\u8a18\u5ff5<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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