{"id":6810,"date":"2026-10-20T16:32:09","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T07:32:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/?p=6810"},"modified":"2026-10-20T16:40:17","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T07:40:17","slug":"2026%e5%b9%b411%e6%9c%882%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%88-%e3%81%ab%e7%94%a3%e7%a0%94%e8%ac%9b%e6%bc%94%e4%bc%9a%e3%80%8cwaseda-organizational-and-financial-economics-seminar-shortages-liquidity-and-the-impac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/news\/6810","title":{"rendered":"2026\u5e7411\u67082\u65e5(\u6708) \u306b\u7523\u7814\u8b1b\u6f14\u4f1a\u300cWaseda Organizational and Financial Economics Seminar : Shortages, Liquidity, and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Prices: Theory and Evidence from Commodity Markets\u300d\u304c\u958b\u50ac\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u300cShortages, Liquidity, and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Prices: Theory and Evidence from Commodity Markets\u300d\uff08\u82f1\u8a9e\u3067\u306e\u3054\u5831\u544a\uff09<\/span><\/h3>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u65e5\u6642<\/th>\n2026\u5e7411\u67082\u65e5\uff08\u6708\uff0913:10~14:50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u958b\u50ac\u65b9\u6cd5<\/th>\n\u2460\u5bfe\u9762 \uff0a11\u53f7\u9928 1212\u6559\u5ba4
\n\u2461Zoom\uff0a\u304a\u7533\u8fbc\u307f\u5b8c\u4e86\u306e\u81ea\u52d5\u8fd4\u4fe1\u30e1\u30fc\u30eb\u306b\u3066\u3001\u53c2\u52a0\u7528URL\u3092\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5bfe\u8c61<\/th>\n\u5b66\u751f\u30fb\u6559\u8077\u54e1\u30fb\u4e00\u822c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u8b1b\u6f14\u8005<\/th>\n\u4f50\u85e4\u3000\u512a\u7d00 \u6c0f\uff08\u6771\u4eac\u5927\u5b66 \u5927\u5b66\u9662\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u79d1\u9644\u5c5e\u91d1\u878d\u6559\u80b2\u7814\u7a76\u30bb\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc \u7279\u4efb\u8b1b\u5e2b\uff09<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u8981\u65e8<\/th>\nWe find that monetary policy shocks have no significant effect on commodity futures prices when markets are in backwardation, that is, when futures prices lie below spot prices. Because backwardation signals supply constraints, reflecting a positive convenience yield that arises under tight supply or low inventories, this finding reveals a new channel for understanding the effects of monetary policy under supply shortages. Our model to investigate this mechanism relies on the inventory arbitrage of commercial traders and the rational inattention of financial traders, which together replicate the higher price response to the aggregate demand shock under ample inventories than under tight inventories. To reinforce our empirical findings, we conduct two complementary analyses. The first tests the assumption that the basis is informative about storage conditions by constructing an Inventory Constraint Index, which closely tracks observed inventory data from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The second examines the liquidity channel, an alternative mechanism through which monetary policy may affect commodity futures markets. Both analyses support our interpretation: while illiquidity is priced through changes in interest rates, inventory tightness, as indicated by the basis, remains the primary transmission channel.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u4e16\u8a71\u4eba<\/th>\n\u8c37\u5ddd \u5be7\u5f66\uff08\u65e9\u7a32\u7530\u5927\u5b66\u5546\u5b66\u5b66\u8853\u9662 \u6559\u6388\uff09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u53c2\u52a0\u7533\u3057\u8fbc\u307f\u65b9\u6cd5<\/th>\n\u53c2\u52a0\u306f\u3053\u3061\u3089<\/a>\u304b\u3089\u304a\u7533\u8fbc\u307f\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u203b10\u670829\u65e5(\u6728\uff0917:00\u7de0\u5207<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5171\u50ac<\/th>\n\u65e9\u7a32\u7530\u5927\u5b66\u5546\u5b66\u90e8\u30fb\u7523\u696d\u7d4c\u55b6\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u30fb\u8c37\u5ddd\u5be7\u5f66\u5206\u79d1\u4f1a<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u300cShortages, Liquidity, and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Prices: Theory and Evidence from Commodity Markets […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-6810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-events"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6810","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6810"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6810\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6814,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6810\/revisions\/6814"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.waseda.jp\/fcom\/riba\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}