現代政治経済研究所
『マクロ経済学と経済制度』


"Macroeconomics and Economic Systems" (ENGLISH SUMMARIES) (Waseda Univ. Press, 2005)(Text Japanese)

Chapter 1
Recovery and Reform : Institutionalism and Macroeconomics during the New Deal Era / Masazumi Wakatabe
 This paper discusses the emergence of macroeconomics in the United States during the New Deal era, with special reference to the economic thought of two economists which represented two dominant thinking at the time, Rexford G. Tugwell, Lauchlin Currie.The structural reform proposals of Tugwell exerted a certain influence during the early years of the New Deal until the demise of his influence, while macroeconomic initiative proposed by Currie gained influence in the later days. The paper also points out the significance of the 1937-38 recession on the evolution of macroeconomic thinking which accorded fiscal policy as the decisive tool of stabilization.
 

Chapter 2
The Economic Thought of Takahashi Kamekichi: Practical Macroeconomics and Structual Reform with Reflationary Policy / Hidetomi Tauaka
 The purpose of this paper is to reconsider Takahashi Kamekichi's contribution in "Practical Macroeconomics". Takahashi was known to be the Leading economist between pre- and post-war period in Japan. He explained the causes of the long stagnation in Shouwa Great Depression, and suggested the change of the economic policy regime for reflation. Takahashi's Practical Macroeconomics distinguished between the structural problem and recession. In Shouwa Great Depression, he insisted that it was necessary for the recovery of economy to suspend the gold standard and adopt the inflationary policy which would substantially raise the expected rate of inflation.
 

Chapter 3
Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: A Simple Model / Kazunori Araki
 This paper built a simple model to examine the consequence of monetary-fiscal policy interactions when the two policy authorities have different policy targets and choose their actions non-cooperatively. It is shown that such non-cooperative behavior tends to widen the gap between their targets (ideal inflation rate and national income) and the results (realized inflation rate and national income). The gap will be even larger when the interdependence structure is non-linear and the policy authorities are risk averse. Further, we briefly discuss the effectiveness of coordination mechanisms and indicate that one of such mechanisms, currently adopted in some countries, does not necessarily ameliorate the situation.
 

Chapter 4
Incomplete Contract, Economic Growth and Stability / Wei Huang, Koichiro Iwamoto and Kumi Suzuki
 Using an over-lapping generation model we try to discover how the incomplete contract environment in the financial market affects the performance of economic growth.
 In an ideal world (the first best) where complete financial contract is available; the economy will grow around a stable growth rate, independent with the total capital stock. But if the contract environment is incomplete, capital stock is important. Economies with large enough capital will converge to the first best growth (with high yet stable growth rate). But in the other hand, economies with very low level of initial capital may falling into the so called "poverty trap".
 We also use the Penn World Table Mark 6.1 data to test whether those predictions of the model fits the real world.
 

Chapter 5
A Study of Endogenous Money Supply Theory / Masaaki Tokuda
 Exogeneity and endogeneity are an important theme on money supply, about which scholars have argued for a long time. In this paper we intend to clarify common opinions and different points between the accommodationists and the structuralists - the two schools of money supply theory who had a controversy with each other in 1990s. Discussion on these two sects has been descriptive so far, but we hereby aim to illustrate their features by giving forms of model. Another end of this paper is to clarify the distinction between these views and the orthodox multiple approach.
 

Chapter 6
The Importance of Risk Correlation between Grouped Borrowers / Shinichi Matsuda
 This chapter analyzes an incentive compatible problem of loan contracts that a lender loans to grouped borrowers under asymmetric information for one period.
 It differs from previous studies of group lending with regard to one borrower's risk correlated with another's risk.
 It is clear that the lender faces different incentives in response to three correlations,which are independent, negative and positive.
 In the independent case, the lender makes a loan contract with one borrower with no relation to another borrower's risk.
 While, in the negative and the positive case, the lender does contract according to another borrower's risk.
 

Chapter 7
China's Fiscal System in Transition to Market Economy / Yu Yang
 Based on the socialist ideology, China developed a planned economy after its birth in 1949. However, the country has gradually changed from planned economy based on centralization to market economy based on decentralization since the policy of "reform and opening" was started in 1978. The economic framework centering at a public-owned system has also changed to a multi-ownership system. Although the "controlled revenue and expenditure" system played an important role in the fiscal system before 1978, it has collapsed in the fiscal reform after the 1980's. In this paper, the author examined changes in the relationship between the central government and local governments as well as the relationship between the government and the stateowned enterprises through analyzing the fiscal reform in the transition process from a planned economy to a market economy.
 

Chapter 8
The Direction of the Individual Income Tax Reform in Japan / Yoshihisa Baba
 The purpose of this paper is to investigate the direction of the income tax reform in Japan. The point we emphasize is that labor income tax should be apportioned a distinct function as financial system.
 The conclusions are as follows.
 1. The labor income tax should be increased while public debt and social security tax should not be increased.
 2. Exemptions for dependents in labor income tax system should be replaced by welfare expenditure by social security system. Welfare expenditures are more equitable and efficient than exemptions for dependents in labor income tax system.
 

Chapter 9
The Optimal Exchange Rate Regime for a Small Open Economy: An Examination of Managed Floating / Yukihiro Iida, Yoshihiro Kitamura and Hiroya Akiba
 This paper examines the welfare implications of the managed floating in a small open economy. Modifying and generalizing the Hamada's model (2002) to accommodate intervention policy, we compare the expected losses under three alternative regimes; freely floating, a pegged exchange rate, and the managed floating. We show that, with some restrictive conditions, the welfare level of a small country under the managed floating is possibly higher than that under other regimes. We conclude that the Managed Floating is superior to freely floating and a pegged exchange rate with respect to price stability and insulation from external factors, respectively.
 

Chapter 10
What Determines Policy Credibility?: The Case of Argentina / Hayato Nakata and Ayano Sato
 We study factors affecting the policy credibility of Argentina under a Currency Board by focusing on the signaling effect and the persistence effect, following Oliva, Rivera-Bariz and Sy(2001) and Drazen and Masson(1994). We find the Currency Board of Argentina made signals of a policymaker's type in the 1990's. Furthermore, for 1993-1994, a tough policy improved credibility by a signaling effect. However, for 1995-2000, because a persistence effect was superior to the signaling effect, increase in unemployment made credibility worse. Our analysis reveals that structural reform of the labor market is important to a stabilizing program.
 

Chapter 11
The Concentration and Specialization of Manufacturing Industries in Japan / Ryuji Aoyagi
 The purpose of this paper is to examine the changes in location of manufacturing industry that have occurred in Japan in recent years. Firstly, based on the Krugman specialization index or K-spec, it is shown that the industrial structures of Japanese economy are becoming more similar. This trend is contrasted to EU economies. Secondly, we identify the underlying forces that determine industrial location from econometric analysis; the location of manufacturing industries is increasingly responsive to regional population and educational ratio.


現代政治経済研究所
『マクロ経済学と経済制度』